Tuesday, May 01, 2007

Beck is Better

Dolphin fans are currently in a state of furor over the selection of Ted Ginn Jr. with the 9th pick in Saturday’s NFL draft. Dolphin fans, you see, had fully imbibed the ESPN cool-aid that had Brady Quinn as the “must have” pick, especially in the 9th slot.

Whether Ginn will or not be an excellent NFL player was not really the point, we were told. The Dolphins, as everyone knows, need a quarterback, and need one bad. So bad, in fact, that prior to the draft quarterback solutions for Miami seemed to consist only of a well-concussed 37 year old Trent Green.

Never mind that Quinn plummeted to the 22nd pick as the draft progressed, seemingly indicating his lack of first round value to other NFL teams. The Dolphins need a quarterback.

Well, they got one. And if college statistics are any indicator, they got a far better one for the 40th overall pick in John Beck of BYU than they would have if they had taken Quinn 31 spots higher.

At Saurian Sagacity we have long claimed Quinn to be vastly over rated, even at the college level. In the past 2 years, Quinn’s Irish have defeated a single ranked team (in the final AP Polls), and that was Penn State, ranked 24th in 2006. When it comes to playing quality ranked opponents, the Irish have been thoroughly outclassed.

Why is Beck better than Quinn? First, lets look at that all inclusive statistic of quarterback ability, the QB rating.

QB Rating in 2006

John Beck 169.06 (2nd nationally)
Brady Quinn 146.65 (18th nationally)

Beck actually improved from 2005 to 2006 (from 137.55), while Quinn’s fell (from 158.40).

The QB rating pretty much tells the tale, but here are the others from 2006 –

Completion Percentage

Beck 69.3
Quinn 61.9

Yards

Beck 3885
Quinn 3426

Yards/Attempt

Beck 9.3
Quinn 7.3


Admittedly the quality of opponents Beck faced at BYU was not what Quinn faced at Notre Dame. However, one must assume that at Notre Dame Quinn was surrounded by far better talent than Beck, not to mention the purported offensive genius of Weis. And, if higher quality competition the sole explanation for Quinn’s considerable statistical difference to Beck, how to explain the following QB’s who all did better than Quinn in 2006, against far stouter opponents than Notre Dame –

JaMarcus Russell (LSU) 167.03
Troy Smith (OSU) 161.91
Andre Woodson (Kentucky) 154.55
Erik Ainge (Tennessee) 151.95
Blake Mitchell (South Carolina) 151.62

Quinn’s most telling failures in college came against the best opponents he played. Last season, Notre Dame played 4 ranked teams, and lost (badly) to 3 of them. The following are the ranked teams the Irish played, with final AP ranking and Quinn’s QB rating in the game –

LSU (3rd) 85.81
USC (4th) 122.04
Michigan (8th) 99.08
Penn State (24th) 163.91

The only big game in which Quinn played well was against Penn State, in which is QB rating ended up 5.15 points lower than Beck’s season average. His performance against Michigan and LSU was pathetic.

Beck’s BYU team played 2 ranked teams, and played Oregon in the Las Vegas Bowl. Against his top competition, Beck played as follows (team, rank, QB rating)-

Boston College (20th) 125.30
TCU (22nd) 161.80
Oregon (UR) 135.00

Which leads us to –

Quinn’s average in “big” games – 117.71
Beck’s average in “big” games -140.70

I have no idea whether Quinn or Beck will be successful in the NFL. What does matter in draft terms is value. But I do know who I would have rather had leading my college team. (Perhaps it is no coincidence that Beck’s Cougars ended up higher ranked than Quinn’s Irish).

So relax Dolphin fans. If you believe Quinn was a steal at 9th, you should believe Beck was the heist of the century in the 40th spot.

And, if the Dolphins wanted a real deal, they could have merely signed a quarterback with a comparable QB rating to Quinn (144.94), and a better completion rating (63.6). A certain undrafted national champion quarterback who, unlike Quinn, actually WON the big games he played.

16 comments:

Henry Gomez said...

Mergz, you saved me having to do the research for the post I was going to write. Great minds think alike.

But I want to add that as Dolphin I'm not upset about not picking Quinn, I'm upset about reaching for Teddy Ginn Jr.

I saw both sides of the coin on him in 1 minute on a cool night in Glendale Arizona this past January. As he he ran the opening kickoff (with the aid of uncalled hold) right toward me I saw his blazing speed. And then I saw him crumble like a potato chip when his teammates tackled him in celebration.

Can he be a difference maker? I think so, if he stays healthy. But I think the fins could have traded down and still gotten him. As I said, he was a reach where we were picking.

What is obvious is that Cam Cameron isn't ready for prime time. That press conference in the bubble was laughable. As the radio commentators have said, he should have tried to sell the Ginn pick as a major upgrade to the receiver position, he should have talked about all the big catches he made at a big time program like OSU. He could have had a highlight reel of Ted Ginn running away from defenders. I don't (and neither do any other Dolphin fans) care about Ted Ginn's family. That's a joke.

And don't sell him as returner (even though that's where he'll make an immediate impact). You don't use such a high pick on a kick returner. For that we would have kept Wes Welker.

Overall, I grade the draft: Waaa Waaaa Waaaa Waaaa

Confirming my decision not invest any more money in that operation.

Henry Gomez said...

Oh I think Quinn and Beck had some common opponents. Might be interesting to look at that.

Anonymous said...

henry gomez shutup u idiot

Henry Gomez said...

Anonymous, is that the best you could do?

Riley said...

Beck would have had even better stats had he not sat out practically every 4th quarter and one full game this past season.

Anonymous said...

The Ginn pick wasn't a reach. Houston with the tenth pick overall said they would have taken Ginn at #10 if the Dolphins hadn't picked him at #9.

Some people really don't do enough research on their own. Instead they would rather parrot what the "talking heads" say when dissing the Ginn pick...

--Ross

Henry Gomez said...

Ross,

Would you happen to have a link to that quote from "houston".

What about my comment was unresearched? It's my opinion.

Anonymous said...

It was the opinion that Ginn at number 9 was a reach pick. You may not like the pick, but to say its a reach is to say he wouldn't have been picked close to going #9 overall if the Dolphins hadn't taken him then. And that isn't the case.

Here's the link By Adam Schefter http://www.nfl.com/nflnetwork/story/10162719

"* Let's be clear about this: Miami might have made a mistake drafting wide receiver Ted Ginn ahead of Brady Quinn, but it did not reach for him. Had the Dolphins passed on Ginn, the Houston Texans very likely would have taken Ginn one pick later at No. 10. Ginn was the player the Texans wanted. ..."

--Ross

Henry Gomez said...

Ross, you left out this key sentence.

They envisioned lining him up as the home-run threat opposite Pro Bowl wide receiver Andre Johnson and giving them a pair of receivers that almost could equal Indianapolis' Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne.

The Texans were looking at Ginn as a number 2 receiver. Honestly the Dolphins need a number 1 receiver. Chris Chambers has never lived up to what all of us dolphin fans had hoped for. He looked like he was going to be a phenom in his rookie season and then he took a hit that set him back for a couple of years. The year before last I believe he made pro bowl on the basis of a strong second half but he had almost as many drops in that year as he did big catches on a non-playoff squad.

Anonymous said...

And another thing Henry. I thought it rather humorous that you think that an opinion doesn't need to be researched. An opinion, regardless of subject matter, should always be researched first before speaking. Too many people just want to run off at the mouth even when they lack any facts that would back up that opinion...

Henry Gomez said...

Here's some facts for you. The Dolphins haven't had a legitimate starting QB since Marino retired. The position has been completely ignored in the draft. The Dolphins haven't made the playoffs in 5 years. The last two Dolphins seasons were supposed to be rebuilding seasons. Now they have to start again. Here's another fact, Cam Cameron was booed on stage for his ridiculous comments about drafting Ginn's "family" and his touting him as a Special teamer first. You don't use the 9th pick of the draft to get a special teamer. Don't like my opinions? There's a little button on the corner of your browser that you can click on the close the window. How's that for a fact?

Anonymous said...

CC hasn't lived up to hype but he isn't the only WR who drops the ball. That's a failing of every WR in the business. as far as last year goes, he gets a mulligan in my eyes because he was double covered constantly with innacurate QB play. Dolphins Oline had problems protecting the QB or open up running lanes. Might be the same this year with the Oline, who knows.

The question isn't if Miami needs a new #1 WR. The question is does Ginn get on the field to stretch the defense. If he's on the field, #1, #2, or #3 it makes no difference. He will still stretch the field. That's what Miami has lacked for a very long time and that is what they expect to get out of Ginn...

Anonymous said...

Who cares if he was booed by a bunch of fans? Like that makes what Cam and company did wrong!?! LOL

PS: You can click that button too if you can't stand the heat. How's that for a fact?

--Ross

Henry Gomez said...

So you think that press conference was good?

Henry Gomez said...

Chris Chambers certainly isn't the only WR that drops passes but he certainly boyed out on a lot of easy catches.

My point is that unlike the Texans we don't have Andre Johnson on the Dolphins, and if we did, I wouldn't want to spend the 9th pick to draft a #2.

Besides just because the Texans thought highly of Ginn doesn't mean jack squat.

Henry Gomez said...

And I've been blogging for two years about things a lot more important than the Dolphins so don't worry about my ability to stand the heat from a couple of trolling anonymous commentators. If you re-read what I read, you'll see that it's my opinion that Ginn was a reach and that I may be wrong but that the organization looked bush league in how they presented the pick. Read what I wrote again and tell me where I am wrong. Do you honestly think that Cam Cameron couldn't have done a better job selling the pick to the fans? And before you say the fans don't matter, tell me why they even bother having that press conference open to the public? Obviously it matters. My final comment was that this franchise has to SHOW ME that that they are on the right track. Any credibility they may have had in the past is gone. I don't believe their promises anymore. I believe results.