Storm Clouds over Tallahassee

We ran this picture earlier this year, which predictably (and not unintentionally) brought howls of protest from the fans of the two schools that are the brunt of the joke. Most of the protest came from fans of the “U”, which pointed out – quite rightly – that while they might be down now, don’t look for it to last long.

In Tallahassee however, there are ominous signs that it might not be so funny.

As Gator fans, there was some admitted schadenfreude in the losses suffered by our in-state rivals this year. Both the Seminoles and Hurricanes posted 7-6 records, both of them barely winning records due only to lower tier bowl wins against UCLA and Nevada. Both finished near the bottoms of their respective ACC conference divisions at 3-5.

Now, it would be natural – and largely ignorant of history – to assume that both teams are permanently “down for the count”. After all, it was not that long ago that a Zook led Florida program looked similar. However, there are signs that Florida State may be in the early part of a longer term decline.

First, let’s look at those similar 7-6 records last year. Miami’s problem in 2006 was offense. In their 7 wins, the only time they scored more than 20 points were against Florida A&M (51), FIU (35) and UNC (27) - not exactly teams known for defense. Their average points per game in 2006 was a very un-Miami-like 20.

However, their defense was very, very good. Giving up only 15.1 points per game was good enough to be ranked 14th nationally. On yards per game given up, they were even better ranked at 7th nationally (Florida was 6th giving up only .1 less yards per game).

In other words, Miami’s defense in 2006 was on par with Florida’s.

Florida State, on the other hand, if they had a strength it was defense, which nationally was nowhere near Miami’s, at 34th in points per game at 19.3 (tied with Cincinnati and Western Michigan). FSU gave up big points to several opponents this year, including 30 to Wake Forest at home.

FSU’s offense, while better than Miami’s, still scored only 26 points per game, a figure skewed largely by their blowout win over UCLA in which they scored 44. Their total offense number (YPG) finds them not ranked in the nation’s top 50.

Both teams obviously had needs to be addressed in recruiting, Miami on offense, and FSU on both sides of the ball.

Of their 18 man class, Miami managed to sign 11 offensive players, including 5 star Scout.com players in RB Graig Cooper and the talented junior college transfer Kayne Farquharson. Miami’s class, a respectively ranked 13th nationally, has 3 RBs, 4 WRs, and 2 O-line men, as well as Florida’s Mr. Football in QB Robert Marve.

FSU’s class came in at 31st on Scout.com, their worst showing in memory. The class has but one 5 Star recruit in JUCO transfer Brian Coulter at DE. And while they signed several O-Line men, they did not get a running back at all.

The average rating of a Miami recruit to an FSU recruit was 3.72 to 3.20, an not insignificant difference.

According to the Tallahassee Democrat, Bowden, in addressing the unsuccessful recruiting efforts this year, said “rebuilding his coaching staff was his priority and conceded that they were unable to spend as much time on recruiting with his staff in transition.”

Not only is that one hell of a damning admission, it shows a longer term trend of falling talent levels at FSU. Here at Saurian Sagacity we are tracking the four year average recruiting classes of all the teams in Division I-A. Here is the trend for both schools –

Miami –
2005 - 5th
2006 – 8th
2007 - 8th

FSU –
2005 – 5th
2006 – 7th
2007 – 11th

You can see a trend in the wrong direction developing fairly rapidly here.

Miami, to their credit, made the hard decision at year’s end and fired Larry Coker. Randy Shannon was able to salvage a decent recruiting class, and it is hard to imagine the “U” will be down too far for too long. For FSU, however, I do not think it is hyperbole to say the 2007 season is a “make or break” year. Ranked for more than a decade in the top 5, FSU finds itself unranked for the first time since the early 80’s with a three game losing streak to Florida.

Another unsuccessful season in Tallahassee can only hurt recruiting more, leading to a downward cycle that might be hard to recover from.

Finally, take another look at that picture above. What is the difference between those 3 men in the mirror?

The difference is birth dates of 1964 (Meyer), 1966 (Shannon) and 1929 (you know who).

You are an 18 year old college kid. Who are you going to play for?

UPDATE – After getting a reasonably heated defense by a Seminole fan to this post, I decided to take a look at FSU’s schedule next year and see what we might expect.

09/03/07 at Clemson Clemson, SC 8:00 p.m. ET
09/08/07 vs. UAB Tallahassee, Fla. TBA
09/15/07 at Colorado Boulder, CO TBA
09/29/07 vs. Alabama Jacksonville, FL TBA
10/06/07 vs. North Carolina State Tallahassee, Fla. TBA
10/11/07 at Wake Forest Winston-Salem, NC TBA
10/20/07 vs. Miami Tallahassee, Fla. TBA
10/27/07 vs. Duke Tallahassee, Fla. TBA
11/03/07 at Boston College Chestnut Hill, MA TBA
11/10/07 at Virginia Tech Blacksburg, VA TBA
11/17/07 vs. Maryland Tallahassee, Fla. TBA
11/24/07 at Florida Gainesville, Fla. TBA

First of all, FSU focused on recruiting offensive line men this year, seeing that as a weakness last year. So they are going to be starting the year likely with an inexperienced group there. They did not sign a QB, so they are going to have to make either Weatherford or Lee work, both of with which they have limited success so far. They also didn’t sign a RB, so with Booker gone, who steps up there?

The defense should be better, with young players there, especially in their secondary getting some seasoning. But I have trouble believing the offense will be much improved, even with the younger Bowden gone.

We will see pretty quick what they can do, as they start right off in hostile territory at Clemson at night, who they lost to last year. After an easy game verses UAB at home, they travel to Boulder to face Colorado, which despite the Buff’s struggles, won’t be a gimme. After their only week off, its time to face Saban and Alabama at Jacksonville, bound to be a hard hitting contest.

Back home to face NC State, then off to Wake (both 2006 losses). Then they get archrival Miami at home, a gimme against Duke, then back-to-back road games at Boston College and at intimidating Blacksburg.

Home to face Maryland (yet another 2006 loss), then on to the Swamp.

So, looking at this schedule, I see only 2 gimmes in UAB and Duke. I see tough road games at Boulder, at Wake, at BC, at Virginia Tech, and at UF. Plus Alabama at a neutral site, and Miami.

I have trouble seeing FSU doing much better than .500 next year. Tell me where I am wrong?