Tuesday, February 27, 2007

The ACC and Big 12 Predictions

These will be the final two conference predictions using our talent scores from Scout.com.

The ACC and Big 12 are interesting cases from last year, as the ACC was least predictive on a conference basis, while the Big 12 was most predictive. In the case of the ACC, our model would have had FSU winning the Atlantic, with Wake coming in last (about the opposite happened), while Miami would have won the Coastal, with Georgia Tech coming in 2nd to last (Duke was predicted last, and delivered).

In the Big 12, our Model was right on, with an exact correct ordering in the Big 12 South (Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma St and Baylor). In the Big 12 North, only Colorado was out of predicted order, and our model did predict a Nebraska win.

For the record, from strongest to least strong by major conference, the model went as thus –

Big 12
Pac 10
Big East
Big 10

The model was nearly spot on for the first 2. It was very strong in the SEC (Arkansas a surprise), strong in the Big East (Cincy the surprise finishing 5th instead of last), not bad in the Big 10 (Michigan predicted ahead of OSU, Wisconsin a surprise at 2nd) and pretty far off in the ACC, as mentioned.

For the coming year, we have the following for the ACC, then Big 12.

Thus, the ACC Championship game is predicted to pit FSU against Miami. In the Big 12, look for undefeated Texas to play Nebraska.

Thus, pulling this all together, and making an assumption or two, here is what Mergz sees for the BCS games next year –

Rose Bowl – Michigan v California
Fiesta Bowl – BCS Buster* (say BYU) v Oklahoma or LSU
Orange Bowl – Pittsburgh v Miami (FL)
Sugar Bowl – Florida v Notre Dame

BCS Title Game – USC v Texas (“The Rematch in the Big Easy”)

*(I reserve the right for my BCS buster to include Utah, Boise, San Diego St or TCU).


My official predictions are “on-paper” (although the BCS games are subject to some guessing, such as who will win various conference title games).

Now, only 10 months to see how it does…

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