Where does the talent come from?

I made an admittedly somewhat snide comment in one of my prior posts that “northern football died two decades ago”. After further reflection, I decided to see if my comment had any truth to it, outside the fact that that only Ohio State has represented any northern team in the BCS Championship game since 1998.

I decided to examine where college football talent currently comes from on a national basis. In doing so, I used Scouts.com “Hot 100” list for the years 2005-2006. On the list, Scouts lists the “top 100” high school prospects each year. I choose 2005-2006 as the years that best represent the heart of the rosters for the upcoming season.

Now, as my fellow blogger has posted in his recent articles on coaching and talent, a list of the “top 100” high school prospects involves a great deal of speculation, as many of the “hottest” prospects do not pan out. However, in looking at the list from recent years, the majority of the names do make an impact in college football. Thus, with this disclaimer, here is a numerical list, by state, of the “top 200” players for 2005-2006

California 28
Texas 22
Florida 18
Georgia 11
Ohio 11
Pennsylvania 10
New Jersey 9
North Carolina 7
Virginia 7
Louisiana 6
South Carolina 6
Maryland 5
Mississippi 5
Washington 5
Alabama 4
Illinois 4
Indiana 4
Oklahoma 4
Tennessee 4
Arkansas 3
Kentucky 3
Michigan 3
New York 3
Minnesota 2
Utah 2
Wisconsin 2
Arizona 1
Colorado 1
Hawaii 1
Missouri 1
Nevada 1
Oregon 1
Alaska 0
Connecticut 0
Delaware 0
Idaho 0
Iowa 0
Kansas 0
Maine 0
Massachusetts 0
Montana 0
Nebraska 0
New Hampshire 0
New Mexico 0
North Dakota 0
Rhode Island 0
South Dakota 0
Vermont 0
West Virginia 0
Wyoming 0

The top 2 are perhaps not surprising, as they are the two most populous states. However, the 3rd largest state – New York, has had only 3 top prospects in the past 2 years. Florida, as the 4th largest state, is 3rd.

Of the 11 states with more than 6 prospects, 7 are southern or former Confederate states (though one might consider Texas “western”). Pennsylvania, Ohio and New Jersey are “northern”, while California is well, just California.

While the overwhelming majority of college football talent comes from the south, Pennsylvania, Ohio and certainly New Jersey have their fair share. Somewhat shocking is the lack of talent from Michigan (3), and absolutely none from Nebraska and West Virginia.

Next, let’s look at the list on a per-capita basis. Based on 2005 population figures, the number of prospects per million state residents is (ranked for states with a least 1 prospect)-

Mississippi 1.71
South Carolina 1.41
Louisiana 1.33
Georgia 1.21
Oklahoma 1.13
Arkansas 1.08
New Jersey 1.03
Florida 1.01
Texas 0.96
Ohio 0.96
Virginia 0.93
Maryland 0.89
Alabama 0.88
Utah 0.81
North Carolina 0.81
Pennsylvania 0.80
Washington 0.80
Hawaii 0.78
California 0.77
Kentucky 0.72
Tennessee 0.67
Indiana 0.64
Nevada 0.41
Minnesota 0.39
Wisconsin 0.36
Illinois 0.31
Michigan 0.30
Oregon 0.27
Colorado 0.21
Missouri 0.17
Arizona 0.17
New York 0.16

On a per capita basis, California produces fewer top high school prospects than 18 other states. And, once again, southern states dominate, with the exception of New Jersey (perhaps Greg Schiano knows something the rest of the country doesn’t?)

While recruiting has become a nationwide process, this analysis is still very important because the majority of high school prospects choose to play at schools in their own state. Of California’s 16 top prospects for 2006, 11 stayed in-state (8 went to USC, 2 to Cal, and one to UCLA). Likewise, of Florida’s 18 prospects for 2005-2006, 12 stayed in state, with 5 to UF, 4 to FSU and 3 to UM.

As you can see from our per-capita list, the south, and the SEC states in particular, is the greatest producer of football talent in the nation.

The Scouts.com “Top 100” is shaping up similarly this year. States with 5 or more top recruits include (along with their current commits) –

California 12 (7 to USC, 2 to UCLA, 1 to Michigan, 1 to Notre Dame, 1 not committed)

Texas 12 (5 to Texas, 1 Texas A&M, 1 Oklahoma St, 1 LSU, 1 Michigan, 3 not committed)

Florida 10 (5 to UF, 2 to Illinois, 3 not committed)

Louisiana 7 (2 to LSU, 5 not committed)

Pennsylvania 6 (2 to Penn St, 2 Pitt, 1 Michigan, 1 Arizona)

Georgia 5 (2 GA Tech, 1 UGA, 1 Tennessee, 1 not committed)

Ohio 5 (4 Ohio State, 1 Tennessee)

South Carolina 5 (2 South Carolina, 1 Clemson, 1 Notre Dame, 1 not committed)

Some schools have become very skilled at recruiting out of their home states, whether through necessity or desire. Michigan, currently ranked 15th overall by Scouts.com for their 2007 class, does so out of necessity, as the state has few top ranked recruits. Of their current 18 commits, only 5 are from Michigan, and none of the them are “five-star”. Michigan’s only “five-star” recruit, in fact, is quarterback Ryan Mallett from Texas.

Florida does it’s out of state recruiting based on desire. In the Gator’s currently 1st ranked class, 16 of the 23 commitments come from Florida, including 4 of the 5 “five-star” recruits. The other five-star guy comes from Connecticut in tight end Aaron Hernandez. Florida also has commitments from recruits in Alabama, California (2), Georgia (2) and Maryland.

So what can we expect for college football for the remainder of this decade?

Likely, more of the same.

Since recruits more often than not stay in their home state, or at least home region, to play their college ball, we can expect the areas that produce the most talent to likewise produce the most winners. So, don’t be surprised if USC, Texas and various SEC schools continue to compete for the BCS title in coming years – it is from these regions the talent comes.

And, it is in these regions the talent stays.