Take a Deep Breath

I'm on vacation and iPhone blogging, so this will be brief.

I've been hearing rumors of health issue with Meyer for some time, and had it on a pretty good source he would be gone by age 50 at latest. If he had to leave, while no time is "perfect", right now is damn close. Next year was apt to be a down year anyway with our player losses, and with the new talent coming in (that we can hold in to) it is a good time to implement a new system.

There are plenty of talented coaches out there that will thrive with the inherent advantages Florida has. Folely won't make a Zookian error twice. Remember, Miami won 5 "national titles" with 4 different coaches.

It didn't end with Steve Spurrier, and it won't end with Meyer. Both men left the program better than they found it. The best job in college football awaits.

And So That Is That

Gloat away rivals, but know this truth -

If we want your coach, we can have him.

If we don't want him, by all means keep him.

SEC Football – Making People Happy

I found this piece today listing the 10 “happiest” states in the nation. They are –


1. Louisiana
2. Hawaii
3. Florida
4. Tennessee
5. Arizona
6. Mississippi
7. Montana
8. South Carolina
9. Alabama
10. Maine

Six of the ten are SEC football states. The correlation is obvious.

The least “happy” SEC state? Kentucky, at 35th. Of course if I had to root for Wildcat football, 35th sounds about right.

The least happy state overall is New York, where college football is nearly absent. Once again, an obvious correlation.

It Really WAS the SEC Championship for Ingram

A commenter to my last post notes, quite correctly, that the Heisman for any given year should be made by comparing how players did within that year, and I agree.

By this metric, however, I think Ingram still falls short.

Ingram was 5th in rushing yardage this season. The top 10 running backs were –

1 Toby Gerhart, RB STAN 1736
2 Ryan Mathews, RB FRES 1664
3 Dion Lewis, RB PITT 1640
4 Donald Buckram, RB UTEP 1594
5 Mark Ingram, RB ALA 1542
6 Ryan Williams, RB VT 1538
7 LaMichael James, RB ORE 1476
8 Joe Webb, QB UAB 1427
9 John Clay, RB WIS 1396
10 Alfred Morris, RB FAU 1392

Of this list, however, only 1 player played 13 games – and that was Ingram (accounting for the SEC Championship).

If you take away the yardage from the Championship game, Ingram had 1429 which would have placed him 8th on this list.

On a yards-per game basis, Ingram is 8th in the nation –

1 Toby Gerhart, RB STAN 144.67
2 Ryan Mathews, RB FRES 138.67
3 Dion Lewis, RB PITT 136.67
4 Donald Buckram, RB UTEP 132.83
5 Ryan Williams, RB VT 128.17
6 LaMichael James, RB ORE 123.00
7 Joe Webb, QB UAB 118.92
8 Mark Ingram, RB ALA 118.62
9 John Clay, RB WIS 116.33
10 Alfred Morris, RB FAU 116.00

And, on a yards-per-carry basis, he is 11th –

1 Vai Taua, RB NEV 7.8
2 Colin Kaepernick, QB NEV 7.8
3 Luke Lippincott, RB NEV 7.7
4 LaMichael James, RB ORE 6.9
5 Lance Dunbar, RB UNT 6.9
6 Ryan Mathews, RB FRES 6.8
7 Joe Webb, QB UAB 6.3
8 Robert Turbin, RB USU 6.3
9 Curtis Steele, RB MEM 6.3
10 Donald Buckram, RB UTEP 6.2
11 Mark Ingram, RB ALA 6.2

If the Heisman is supposed to be for the “best” player in college football, the voters missed here. It is pretty apparent Ingram isn’t even the best running back.

Stanford’s Gerhart certainly has an argument for being the top running back. Also near the top statistically is Fresno’s Matthews, but his level of opposition might be questioned.

But what about Oregon’s LaMichael James, or Pitt’s Dion Lewis?

Both had more yards per game than Ingram, and Matthews had far more yards overall. And James had nearly 7 yards per carry.

Once again I like Mark Ingram. I just don’t get the award, whether the debate is about his stats this season, or about how he compares to running backs on a historic basis.

If not Ingram then, who?

Well, through clenched teeth, I would submit Notre Dame’s Jimmy Clausen.

The top 10 quarterbacks by passer rating this season were –

1 Kellen Moore, QB BSU 167.3
2 Jimmy Clausen, QB ND 161.4
3 Max Hall, QB BYU 160.9
4 Andy Dalton, QB TCU 159.6
5 Case Keenum, QB HOU 159.3
6 Ryan Mallett, QB ARK 157.9
7 Nathan Enderle, QB IDHO 155.8
8 Tim Tebow, QB FLA 155.6
9 Tony Pike, QB CIN 155.4
10 Dan LeFevour, QB CMU 154

I don’t believe Boise had the level of opposition that gives Moore serious consideration. But Notre Dame certainly did.

Clausen’s other stats are eye-opening –

Completion Percentage – 68% (6th best)
Yards – 3722 (3rd best)
TD’s – 28 (6th best)
Interceptions – 4

The interception figure is amazing. Clausen was sacked 24 times yet threw only 4 picks.

Sure Notre Dame went 6-6. Clausen kept them close in most games, and I’m guessing they would have gone 2-10 without him (still would have defeated Nevada and Washington State).

Finally, what does it say about the current state of the Notre Dame program when a quarterback who’s stats are comparable to the last 5 quarterback Heisman winners doesn’t get any serious Heisman consideration?

The Curious Heisman of Mark Ingram

I’d like to start this by saying I respect Mark Ingram. I think he is an excellent football player and a quality person. His Heisman acceptance speech was excellent.

I just don’t understand why he won it.

Before the vote I noted he was probably the least deserving of the candidates, a crop of which this year was less than stellar. As of late the Heisman has seemed to go mostly to the quarterback position, and there were really no deserving nominees in that position this year (there were, perhaps, deserving quarterbacks, but they weren’t finalists).

When there is no deserving quarterback the default option historically seems to go to running backs, and this year was no different. But why Ingram? Let’s look at the top running backs of the past 5 years by yards gained (1500 or more yards per season)–

1 2007 Kevin Smith, RB UCF 2567
2 2007 Matt Forte, RB TULN 2127
3 2008 Donald Brown, RB CONN 2083
4 2007 Ray Rice, RB RUTG 2012
5 2005 DeAngelo Williams, RB MEM 1964
6 2006 Garrett Wolfe, RB NIU 1928
7 2005 Jerome Harrison, RB WSU 1900
8 2008 Shonn Greene, RB IOWA 1850
9 2007 Darren McFadden, RB ARK 1830
10 2006 Ray Rice, RB RUTG 1794
11 2006 Steve Slaton, RB WVU 1744
12 2005 Reggie Bush, RB USC 1740
13 2009 Toby Gerhart, RB STAN 1736
14 2008 MiQuale Lewis, RB BALL 1736
15 2007 Jonathan Stewart, RB ORE 1722
16 2006 Ian Johnson, RB BSU 1714
17 2007 Rashard Mendenhall, RB ILL 1681
18 2007 Eugene Jarvis, RB KENT 1669
19 2009 Ryan Mathews, RB FRES 1664
20 2006 Darren McFadden, RB ARK 1647
21 2009 Dion Lewis, RB PITT 1640
22 2008 Javon Ringer, RB MSU 1637
23 2005 Brian Calhoun, RB WIS 1636
24 2007 Jamaal Charles, RB TEX 1619
25 2007 Chris Wells, RB OSU 1609
26 2007 Anthony Alridge, RB HOU 1597
27 2009 Donald Buckram, RB UTEP 1594
28 2007 Damion Fletcher, RB USM 1586
29 2008 Jahvid Best, RB CAL 1580
30 2005 Garrett Wolfe, RB NIU 1580
31 2006 PJ Hill, FB WIS 1569
32 2006 Mike Hart, RB MICH 1562
33 2008 Kendall Hunter, RB OKST 1555
34 2007 Justin Forsett, RB CAL 1546
35 2009 Mark Ingram, RB ALA 1542
36 2009 Ryan Williams, RB VT 1538
37 2008 Tarrion Adams, RB TLSA 1523
38 2006 Ahmad Bradshaw, RB MRSH 1523
39 2008 Vai Taua, RB NEV 1521
40 2007 Jalen Parmele, RB TOL 1511

Of the 40 individuals that have rushed for more than 1500 yards since 2005, Ingram ranks 35th.

When we look at the same group by yards-per-carry, Ingram fares a little better (the top 20 only) –

1 2005 Reggie Bush, RB USC 8.7
2 2008 Jahvid Best, RB CAL 8.1
3 2006 Steve Slaton, RB WVU 7
4 2009 Ryan Mathews, RB FRES 6.8
5 2005 Garrett Wolfe, RB NIU 6.5
5 2008 Kendall Hunter, RB OKST 6.5
7 2007 Rashard Mendenhall, RB ILL 6.4
7 2008 Vai Taua, RB NEV 6.4
9 2005 DeAngelo Williams, RB MEM 6.3
9 2007 Jamaal Charles, RB TEX 6.3
11 2006 Garrett Wolfe, RB NIU 6.2
11 2005 Jerome Harrison, RB WSU 6.2
11 2007 Jonathan Stewart, RB ORE 6.2
11 2006 Ian Johnson, RB BSU 6.2
11 2007 Anthony Alridge, RB HOU 6.2
11 2009 Donald Buckram, RB UTEP 6.2
11 2009 Mark Ingram, RB ALA 6.2
11 2008 Tarrion Adams, RB TLSA 6.2
19 2006 Ahmad Bradshaw, RB MRSH 6.1
20 2008 Shonn Greene, RB IOWA 6

Among his immediate peers of the past 5 years, Ingram is the 35th best for total yards rushed, and tied for 11th with several others in yards-per-carry. None of that says “Heisman winner”.

Now Heisman consideration is more complicated then just comparing statistics, and there are other positions (or at least one other, QB) that go into every calculation. But how did some of the other standouts on these lists above fare?

2009

Toby Gerhart – Gerhart came in 2nd. Gerhart was the 13th best rusher by yards in the past 5 years, or 22 spots ahead of Ingram. He was the top rusher this year, and Ingram was 5th.

2008

Shonn Green – Green came in a distant 6th in Heisman voting although he was the 8th best rusher of the past 5 seasons, and 2nd in 2008.

2007

Darren McFadden – The 2nd best rusher of his year, and the 9th best of the 5 year span, McFadden came in second. (Now McFadden is obviously a special case as a QB who ran).

2006

Darren McFadden – The Razorback was also 2nd in ’06, a year that was the 20th best in the past 5.

Steve Slaton – Slaton was 4th overall in a year that the 11th best in the past 5, and the 3rd best by yards per carry in the same period. He was the 3rd best rusher that year.

Ray Rice – Rice, the 2nd best rusher in 2006, had the 10th best effort of the past half decade that year.

2005

Reggie Bush, the top yards-per-rush guy of the past 5 years, won. His was the 12th best rushing yards effort of the past 5 years.

All of these players – even McFadden the quarterback, had better rushing statistics than this year’s winner, but only Bush actually won.

But what about these players who didn’t show up in the Heisman voting?

2008

Donald Brown, UCONN – 2088 yards rushing, the 3rd best in the past 5 years.

Javid Best, CAL – 29th best effort in total rushing the past 5 years, 2nd best in yards per carry.

2007

Kevin Smith, UCF – Smith rushed for a mind boggling 2567 yards, best of the past 5 years, and 1023 yards BETTER THAN INGRAM. All he got was 8th in Heisman voting.

Matt Forte,TULN – Forte was 2nd best in the past 5 years with 2127.

Ray Rice, RUTG – Rice actually had a better year than the year before when he appeared in the Heisman voting with 2012 yards rushing.

2006

Garrett Wolfe, NIU – Wolfe had 1928 yards as the best of that year, the 5th best in the past 5, and had 7 yards per carry for 5th best in the half decade.

Once again, every one of these players was far-and-away statistically superior to Ingram. But teams like UCF, Connecticut and, goodness forbid Northern Illinois, don’t get Heisman consideration.

What Happened

It doesn’t make much sense, but get used to it. Heisman voters only follow the top teams every year, and seem to make their picks based on who is perceived to be the best player on the top teams.

But this year was a little different.

Ingram won the Heisman for the SEC Championship game, pure and simple. Starting this year voters for the Heisman can vote electronically (rather than the paper ballots that had to be mailed in the past), and the overwhelming majority (80% plus) voted after the Championship games. So Ingram’s performance was fresh in their minds, despite his pitiful 30 yard effort against Auburn the week before.

Against a weakened Florida defense a pretty decent argument can be made Ingram wasn’t even the best running back on his team in the SEC Championship. He just got the most carries. Ingram went 113 yards on 28 carries for a 4.0 average, while Trent Richardson went 80 yards on 11 carries (7.3 average) and Roy Upchurch went 57 yards on 7 carries (8.1 average).

Is this to be the way in the new age of electronic Heisman voting? Are winners destined to be players of largely unremarkable statistical achievement coming from an exclusve, and narrow, group of teams? Will enhanced (and unproportional) emphasis be given to those that play in Championship games (SEC, ACC, Big 12)?

You might note that 4 of the top 5 finalists this year played in such a game.

At least under this new format we can dispense with all the nonsense about the “Race for the Heisman” that we are subjected to all year long.

No, I didn’t believe that either.

Zach Azzanzi - new Wide Receivers coach

Zach Azzanzi has been hired to replace Billy Gonzales as wide receivers coach. Gonzales left the staff to become the wide receivers coach and passing game coordinator at LSU on Thursday. Despite being caught off-guard by Gonzales's decision, Coach Meyer hire Azzanzi before the end of the day. Azzanzi, most recently the wide receivers coach at Central Michigan, has a reputation for being an excellent coach and an outstanding recruiter.

Azzanzi was part of Coach Meyer's staff at Bowling Green as well.

More to come later.

Update 9:10am

Azzanzi, who also held the title of Assistant Head Coach, has been Central Michigan's South Florida recruiter since 2007.

Update 10:25am

Azzanzi is one of three finalists for the FootballScoop.com Wide Receivers Coach of the Year Award. Here are the finalists.

Huge Coaching News

Word came to me tonight that Billy Gonzales is no longer part of the Florida football staff. He has chosen to move over to Baton Rouge and join LSU's coaching staff. Coach Gonzales was not only the Wide Receivers coach but also the Recruiting Coordinator. This move will have a huge effect on this year's class - speculation has already begun that WR Kenny Stills will no longer be a part of this year's class.

I have also heard that this will not be the only change, since Coach Meyer was upset with the direction that the offense has taken and upset with the attitudes of some on the staff. Word is that Coach Meyer wants to get back to his roots of razzle dazzle, chucking the ball all over the field. This could possibly lead to the Gators having a new offensive coordinator next year.

Let the speculation begin on who the replacement will be.

The first name that comes to mind for me is Mike Sanford. Sanford was the OC at Utah and was recently fired from UNLV where he was the head coach.

I Demand Replay

In an effort to diversify the content of Saurian Sagacity we present the “Master’s” age group results (40-49) of last evening’s PAL (Police Athletic League) mile race in Boca Raton.

Naturally the only reason we do so is it has something to do with me.

My friend and I entered the race with a wager of a beer to the winner (between us two – there was no chance 2 forty-somethings were winning the race). The results for our age group (with names removed, and modified where needed) were –

























That’s right – the SOB beat me by 7/10ths of a second.

I simply made my move to soon. With about 75 yards to go I passed him. Thinking I had him I didn’t seem him surge up, and he caught me at the finish. I let out an expletive that was totally inappropriate for the family nature of the event.

He said he might have let me go if I hadn’t given him “that look”. Note to self – remove “the look” from your repertoire.

The best part is the bartender wouldn’t break my large bill, so he bought the beer anyway.

Heisman Garbage

On ESPN radio’s Mike & Mike this morning Mark Schlereth referred to the Heisman Trophy as a “garbage award”.

I totally agree. In fact, I’d call it a “bullshit beauty award”.

The Heisman Trophy is supposedly given to the “best” football player in college each season. Yet, as is widely known, it seems to be almost exclusively awarded to offensive players, specifically quarterbacks and running backs. Since 1990 the Heisman has been given to –

12 Quarterbacks
5 Running Backs
1 Wide Receiver
1 Cornerback

Recent awards seem to be increasingly influenced by two primary factors –

1. Media exposure
2. Voter laziness

While the first factor has been a part of the Heisman for as long as anyone can recall, the advent of the ESPN era has increased the media influence. There are several “experts” who give preseason and weekly updates on their Heisman opinions, and those so fortunately named usually figure largely in the eventual outcome. For this season, Tim Tebow, Colt McCoy and Sam Bradford were the preseason anointed, and two of those players will be at the award ceremony this Saturday.

Both are totally undeserving of the award. But more on that later.

As for the second factor, voters have given the award largely to players from a select group of teams. People have been (rightly) critical of the exclusive nature of the BCS bowls and championship, but the BCS has nothing on the Heisman for exclusivity. Since 1990, 13 of the total 19 Heisman’s have gone to 5 schools –

USC - 3
Florida, FSU, Michigan, Oklahoma and Ohio State - 2 each

The other 6 awards have gone to Nebraska, Texas, Wisconsin, Miami, Colorado and BYU.

The BYU award, given in 1990, is the only one in that time period given to a non-BCS school (albeit before the BCS). Non-BCS school players aren’t even invited anymore.

Current voters don’t look beyond what the media serves them up, nor do they bother to look much beyond the few top ranked teams that year. Sure representatives of Stanford and Nebraska will be in New York this weekend, but a win by either is highly unlikely.

The Current Finalists

If there has ever been a less deserving group of finalists than this year I can’t recall it (with perhaps the exception of the lone defensive player). They are –

Toby Gerhart – Stanford
Mark Ingram – Alabama
Colt McCoy – Texas
Tim Tebow – Florida
Ndamukong Suh – Nebraska

First let’s deal with the two quarterbacks.

Take a look at the top 18 quarterbacks by passer rating in the NCAA this year –

1 Kellen Moore, QB BSU 167.3
2 Jimmy Clausen, QB ND 161.4
3 Max Hall, QB BYU 160.9
4 Andy Dalton, QB TCU 159.6
5 Case Keenum, QB HOU 159.3
6 Ryan Mallett, QB ARK 157.9
7 Nathan Enderle, QB IDHO 155.8
8 Tim Tebow, QB FLA 155.6
9 Tony Pike, QB CIN 155.4
10 Dan LeFevour, QB CMU 154
11 Bill Stull, QB PITT 152.4
12 Joe Webb, QB UAB 150.7
13 Levi Brown, QB TROY 149.4
14 Tyrod Taylor, QB VT 149.3
15 Sean Canfield, QB ORST 148.3
16 Russell Wilson, QB NCST 147.8
17 Christian Ponder, QB FSU 147.7
18 Colt McCoy, QB TEX 147.5

You can see the reason I chose the top 18! How in the world can Colt McCoy be a serious candidate?

Or even Tebow. When he won the award in 2007, his QB rating was 172.5.

There has been virtually no mention of the 7 quarterbacks at the top of this list for the Heisman. Sorry BYU, the days of you rating a Heisman mention are so 1990.

On quarterback rating, the past 4 quarterback winners of the Heisman have been as follows –

2008 Sam Bradford – 180.9
2007 Tim Tebow – 172.5
2006 Troy Smith – 161.2
2004 Matt Leinart – 156.5

Tebow is close to Leinart, but McCoy isn’t even in the ballpark. No one this year is as good as Tebow or Bradford were when they won.

Maybe this is a year the Heisman shouldn’t go to a quarterback.

Well, here are your two running backs by yardage, yards per carry and touchdowns –

Toby Gerhart – 1736 yards, 5.6 ypc, 26
Mark Ingram – 1542 yards, 6.2 ypc, 15

To his credit, Gerhart is the leading rushing in the NCAA, while Ingram is 5th. But on a traditional Heisman basis, their numbers simply don’t hold up.

The last 5 running back winners of the Heisman were, with rushing yards and TD’s –

Reggie Bush – 1740-16
Ron Dayne – 1834-19
Ricky Williams – 2397-29
Eddie George – 1927-24
Rashaan Salaam – 2055-24

Ingram doesn’t even rate in the same universe of modern Heisman winning running backs. Gerhart’s total yards are close to Bush’s, but Bush rushed for an incredible 8.7 yards per carry in 2005.

If the Heisman is going to go to a running back, shouldn’t it be someone with historic numbers? And if it is a season, like this one, where the leading rusher doesn’t approach the yardage of past winners, maybe it should go to another position.

So neither of the quarterback nominees deserves the award based on this year’s numbers compared to their peers, and Gerhart doesn’t deserve it based on historic comparisons. Ingram doesn’t deserve it when compared either to this year’s RB’s or historically. If a case had to be made for any of the 4 offensive players, Gerhart wins out, but I don’t think he will win.

So what about Suh?

It is simply hard to qualify what, statistically, a defensive player should do to win the Heisman. Like most college fans I only saw him play a single game in the Big 12 championship, and he gave one of the all time great defensive performances. But is that enough?

Maybe in a year when no offensive player should qualify, it is.

As for the Heisman overall, I continue to agree with Schlereth.

That didn't take long

With a staff loaded with gray area recruiters, it was easy to predict that the NCAA would be keeping a watchful eye on the Volunteers. What wasn’t expected is the fact that it took less than a year for a formal inquiry. The rumor mill is also churning with tidbits like a recruit’s family receiving a condo after verbally committing to Tennessee. Maybe this is why there is a mass exodus from the Volunteer coaching staff – reliable sources have told me Charlie Strong will name Lance Thompson (UT LB coach) as his defensive coordinator at Louisville.

Louisville Press Conference for 3:30pm tomorrow

They interviewed two candidates. The first for 45 minutes. The second multiple hours over a 2 day period.

Ugly

A friend of mine, who I usually think to be a sober observer of college football and the Gators in particular, and I are debating how close (or not) Saturday’s game really was.

He says, and I quote, “That game was not that much different than 2008. Had Hernandez caught the ball on the 3, we go into ½ time down 19-17.”

True, but it was still a total beatdown. Take a look at the box comparisons between this year’s game and last –
























Of course it is the time of possession that really leaps off the page with almost an exact 2 to 1 ratio. Florida’s offense simply wasn’t on the field much, because we couldn’t get Alabama off the field.

Alabama ran 71 plays on offense to our 49, while 53 of ‘Bama’s snaps were clock killing rushing plays. Last year Alabama ran 53 offensive plays total, and Florida had 64.

Last year the Tide converted only 5 of 12 third down chances (41.7%). This year they converted on a deadly 11 of 15 tries, or 73.3%.



That this game was close at all through halftime was a miracle.

Still don’t believe it was a monumental beatdown? Well, let's compare the box from this year to another epic whuppin’ of historic importance –
























Team “A” was, obviously, the blowout victim here. Notably the teams had the identical number of first downs as occurred in this SEC Championship. Both teams had slightly less total yardage than did their comparative numbers here in Florida and Alabama (the percentages of total yards are nearly the same – 40.6% to 59.4% in the 2009 SEC Championship, and 39.9% to 60.2% in our mystery game).

Alabama had 163 more rushing yards than Florida, while Team B had 123 more than Team A. Passing yardage was similar in both cases.

Time of possession was also vastly in favor of the winning team, with Alabama having 3:10 more than our mystery winner in Team B.

The final score of the mystery game – 52-20 in favor of Team “B”.

That’s right – that’s the box for the 1997 Sugar Bowl of Florida over FSU.

I’ll let that settle in.

What Happened

Its time for the postmortem my friends, and what the body reveals may not be pretty. But we need to hear it.

I’ve looked at several statistical angles on Saturday’s demolition by the Crimson Tide. Mostly I can sum up what I found in one statement (paraphrasing Dennis Green)-

“We aren’t who we thought we were”.

Let’s take the issues one at a time.

The Gator Defense

First there is the matter of what appeared to be the nation’s number one scoring defense prior to Saturday. The Gators were giving up only a stellar 9.8 points per game. Prior to the 32 point gusher by Alabama, the worst an opponent had scored on the Gators was 20 by Arkansas at Florida.

In retrospect, there were warning signs if one cared to look.

Prior to playing Alabama, the best scoring offense the Gators had faced (on a national basis) was none other than Arkansas, who averaged 37.3 points per game. In fact Arkansas and Alabama, were the only 2 offenses in the top 30 nationally the Gators faced all season. The national ranking of the scoring offenses faced by Florida this season were (BCS teams, by national ranking) –

8. Arkansas
26. Alabama
32. Tennessee
39. FSU
59. Georgia
63. Kentucky
72. Mississippi State
74. LSU
96. South Carolina
114. Vanderbilt

The average BCS conference offense the Gators faced this season – 58.3rd ranked. Or, look at it this way –

Points surrendered to Arkansas and Alabama = 52 (26 ppg)
Points surrendered to the other 8 teams above = 86 (10.8 ppg)

Now it is impossible to speculate what the loss of Carlos Dunlap did to the Gators defensively, other than to say it couldn’t have helped. But more on Dunlap later.

Run Defense

Mark Ingram was the best running back Florida faced this year by far. Ingram ranks 5th in the nation in total yards at 1542, with 6.2 yards per carry. The Gators were actually fairly successful against Ingram on a yards per carry basis, holding him to “only” 4 yards per carry for 113 total yards. But we weren’t successful against the other two backs ‘Bama used. Freshman Trent Richardson rushed for 80 yards at 7.3 per carry, and senior Roy Upchurch added 57 yards at 8.1 per carry.

The best rushing offense Florida faced all year was Mississippi State (9th ranked nationally), and the Gators gave up 92 yards at Starkville. The second best was Alabama (12th ranked), and Florida was gnashed for 251 yards.

Once again, the loss of Dunlap couldn’t have helped here, but I don’t think we were as good as we thought we were.

Quarterback

The best quarterback on the field Saturday wasn’t the 2007 Heisman winner. While Tebow threw for more yards than McElroy (247-234) he wasn’t nearly as effective. Tebow was 20 of 35 for a completion percentage of 57.1%, while McElroy had a 66.7% completion percentage (12-18). By quarterback rating Tebow was 120.14, while McElroy was a sterling 196.54.

Tebow simply didn’t play a very good game. He wasn’t particularly pressured (Alabama didn’t sack him once), but many of his throws were ill advised or seriously off target. He failed to find wide open receivers all day, and his sole interception was a game killer.

It might be heresy, but I’m going to say it - the quarterback of the last 2 seasons wasn’t here this year.

Tebow had a QB rating of 172.5 in 2007 when he won the Heisman, and a rating of 172.4 last year. This season, against far easier opponents than either ’07 or ’08, it was a 155.6. I can see only two reasons –

1. The talent he had around him in ’07 and ’08 made him look better than he was.

2. “Something” happened to account for the loss in effectiveness.

He remains an effective runner, but was much less efficient passing this year than the last two.

In the end, Tebow didn’t lose this game singlehandedly (I believe it was much more on the defense), but he couldn’t bail us out.

Soft Schedule

As I noted before, Alabama had a harder schedule than Florida going into this game (19th ranked versus 30th ranked). The Tide were by far-and-away the best team the Gators faced this season, and it showed. We got punched in the mouth early, and had no answer.

Much of the scheduling this year wasn’t Florida’s fault, but some of it was. The SEC East, in particular, was weak this year, and Florida State was atrocious. But there remains no excuse for scheduling the likes of Charleston Southern and FIU. We’ve debated before how scheduling more difficult teams isn’t rewarded by the pollsters and BCS. Well, scheduling patsies isn’t rewarded on the field when it counts. And sooner or later, if you are going to play for a national title through the SEC, you are going to play someone who is tested.

Arrogance

For a stat “geek” like me, this is a hard one to quantify. But I’ve been feeling its pervasive poison for some time among our fans, and one has to wonder if it wasn’t the same with our players.

Countless friends approached me at my FSU tailgate to ask me “Where are you staying in Pasadena?”, or “What are you doing with your national championship tickets?” I was astonished each time I was asked. (I even took to responding “Why would you go to California to see Alabama play Texas?” It wasn’t meant to be prescient, but I couldn’t believe people were taking Alabama for granted.)

It is the job of the coaches, and the duty of the players, to avoid such conceit and stay focused. I have no way of knowing whether such arrogance crept into the thinking of the players, but there are many signs it did. For one there is Carlos Dunlap. Who in the hell thinks they can go out partying past 3 AM on championship week? Where was the focus? And if he was doing it, was he alone?

One can almost see how it would have played out too. Florida has back-to-back games against vastly overmatched opponents, with one of them being your chief in-state rival. You start to believe you are as good as the press and polls are telling you. Then a truly hungry, focused team shows you what you really are. The Gators were concerned with picking out novel uniforms this week. Alabama was focused on revenge.

Finally, if there was a metaphor for the game, it was manifested in those awful uniforms. I saw a team I didn’t recognize – whether visually, emotionally or by skill set – playing a team proudly wearing one of the great traditional uniforms in all of college history. Alabama played like Alabama.

Florida, not so much.

What we learned this past weekend:

1. It is tough being the head coach at the University of Florida. This senior class has won more games than any class in SEC history, 2 National Championships, 2 SEC titles and possibly a third BCS bowl game and the Gator fanbase is de-crying this season as a failure. Sadly this reminds me of the fans reactions after the 2001 season.

2. Steve Addazio struggled all season against the good defensive coordinators (Tennessee, Arksansas and Alabama) and Saturday was no different. For the life of me, I don't understand why we ran the ball with our running backs only 4 times Saturday. So while it is true that Tebow mis-read at least two touchdown passes in the first half and our receivers dropped some key passes throughout the game, our offensive gameplan strayed from our strength. Not only that, we never adjusted to what Alabama was doing. The role of a first-time offensive coordinator cannot be understated with regards to this season's struggles on offense.

3. The defense was out-prepared. Alabama came out in new formations for the personnel they had on the field and it confused us from the opening series. I was shocked by the fact that we had no clue how to stop them. That being said, the refs missed a couple of blatant holding calls - not the least of which was on Ingram's screen pass.

4. The days of our staff allowing the team to police themselves is over after this year's bowl game, and maybe sooner. While Carlos Dunlap's error in judgement did not lose the game for us, it certainly effected how we played. In the future Coach Meyer will leave nothing to chance, no matter how strong the senior class is.

5. Charlie Strong leaving for Louisville isn't a lock. Word around Gainesville is that Jeremy Foley is going to make a substantial offer to Charlie Strong to keep him on the Gator staff. If Strong does leave however, don't be surprised to see Billy Gonzales offered the offensive coordinator position.

6. With the hiring of Eddie Gran, Florida State isn't straying from its roots. Gran, who has focused on South Florida for both Auburn and Tennessee, has long recruited in the gray-area of the rules. The treatment of Nu'Keese Richardson by Kiffin directly led to Gran leaving the Vols.

7. The maneuvering of bowl bids to allow Florida State to play 1st in the State of Florida and 2nd against West Virginia in Bobby Bowden's last game underscores the ridiculousness of the current bowl system. Isn't it great that Bowden's last game is a public display of him saying he is bigger than college football?

8. Finally, I would like to thank the Alabama fan that was riding my 6 year-old son during the 3rd and 4th quarter of the game as we watched the game in the lounge area of the Polynesian at Disney World. Now he hates Alabama and Nick Saban too. There are pluses and minuses with everything.

And So It Ends

With the mission unfinished, and reeking of hubris.

The type of hubris that is more concerned with picking out uniforms than true motivation. The type of hubris that has fans booking flights and rooms months ago in a place that we had yet to earn. The type of hubris born of a soft schedule.

The type of hubris that gets drunk on a Tuesday and falls asleep at a stoplight.

Congrats to Alabama. You were the better team. Represent well.

This Is It

Has there ever been a bigger game in the history of the SEC than what we will see tomorrow?

Yes, I know SEC football “didn’t start with Steve Spurrier”, or even with the advent of the SEC Championship game (though it’s hard to believe that this weekend marks the 18th SEC Championship game).

But consider – consensus number 1 Florida, undefeated, against consensus number 2 Alabama, also undefeated. The winner not only claims an SEC title, but will play for a BCS title. It is a de facto “national” champion semifinal game between undefeated teams.

The only thing that was close in the SEC Championship era was, well, last year. The rankings were reversed, but the teams were the same. In that game, however, Florida had a mar on it’s record in the loss to Ole Miss. For the rest of the SEC Championship era, there have been 7 other games where the SEC Champion went on to play for the putative “national” title. The SEC Championship representative has won the “national” title 7 of the 8 times it played for it, the only loss being the Nebraska-Florida blowout of 1995.

In the case of those other SEC national title winners in the SEC Championship era, no game other than last year’s was nearly so consequential. The games and the participants were (with AP rankings)–

1992 Alabama (2) over Florida (12)
1995 Florida (2) over Arkansas (23)
1996 Florida (4) over Alabama (11)
1998 Tennessee (1) over Mississippi State (23)
2003 LSU (3) over Georgia (5)
2006 Florida (4) over Arkansas (8)
2007 LSU (5) over Tennessee (14)
2008 Florida (2) over Alabama (1)

This year, not only are both teams undefeated, but the game is a contrast of historical periods. Alabama quite obviously represents the most successful team in SEC history with 21 conference titles, although their last came in 1999. At 21 SEC titles the Tide have 8 more than Tennessee, in second place at 13.

Florida is the story of modern success in the SEC. Historically Florida is 5th in total SEC football titles (behind ‘Bama, Tennessee, Georgia and LSU). However, since the Gator’s first “official” title in 1991 Florida has claimed 8 total titles, or nearly half of the 18 titles possible during that period. In the period of the SEC Championship, the Gators have overwhelming been the dominant program.

Titles in the SEC Championship Era

7 – Florida
3- LSU
2- Alabama
2- Georgia
2- Tennessee
1- Auburn

Or by win percentage –

Win-Loss Record since 1992 (including this season)

Florida 182-41-1
Tennessee 164-60-0
Georgia 156-64-1
Auburn 146-70-2
LSU 143-76-1
Alabama 142-82-0

It isn’t even close. As much as Alabama is the indisputable overall SEC leader, Florida is the dominant team of the past 2 decades.

(For those of you disinclined to recognize the dominance of Florida in the past 20 years (1990-present), Florida is the nation’s most winning program with a 201-51-1 record, or .798 winning percentage. By way of contrast Alabama, the dominant SEC power for the 20 years from 1970 to 1989, the Tide had a record of 188-49-3, or a .790 winning percentage, the 4th best in the nation during that time. (This was a period in which the Tide claims 3 “national titles”.) Florida’s nearest SEC rival by record in the past 20 years is Tennessee at 182-65-2, while ‘Bama’s during the 70’s and 80’s was UGA at 164-64-7. Florida is every bit the "Alabama" of the past 20 years.)

For long term historical parallel, the only game I could find was the 1971 contest between Alabama and Auburn. Both team were undefeated for the Iron Bowl (though curiously ‘Bama was 10-0 while the Tigers were 9-0). Alabama defeated Auburn and it’s Heisman winner Pat Sullivan 31-7, and Alabama went on to face – and lose to – Nebraska in the Orange Bowl for that year’s “national” title claim.

Even though the ’71 game was between bitter historic, and undefeated, rivals, I still think this year’s game is bigger. For one it’s a SEC Championship format, and for two Alabama was 4th ranked in the AP, and Auburn 5th ranked. It wasn’t 1 versus 2.

Tomorrow’s game is a story of SEC history against SEC present, with no consolation prize for the loser. In 2009 a one-loss SEC team has exactly a zero shot at the BCS title.

Put another way, Florida could end the season with the same record as it had in 1996, 2006 and 2008, and have no titles to show for it.

Tomorrow is for all the proverbial marbles. There hasn’t been a bigger game in SEC history.

Let’s get it on.

FSU Follies

Twins

Consider –

Scoring Offense

A. 36.5 ppg (10th nationally)
B. 31.7 ppg (25th nationally)

Scoring Defense

A. 9.8 ppg (1st nationally)
B. 10.8 ppg (2nd nationally)

Schedule Strength

A. 30th nationally
B. 19th nationally

Obviously “A” is Florida, and “B” Alabama.

Florida has scored about 5 more points per game, and given up 1 less point, but against marginally weaker competition.

Look at the common opponent scores –

Tennessee

Florida 23-13
‘Bama 12-10

Kentucky

Florida 41-7
‘Bama 38-20

LSU

Florida 13-3
‘Bama 24-15

Arkansas

Florida 23-20
‘Bama 35-7

Mississippi State

Florida 29-19
‘Bama 31-3

South Carolina

Floirda 24-14
‘Bama 20-6

Similar looking, no?

Flip a coin Saturday, and pray Carlos Dunlap isn’t the difference.

Befuddle me this...

By now everyone knows that Charlie Weis is out at Notre Dame. Have there ever been more expectations placed upon a coach that didn't deliver than those placed on Weis? Well maybe. Those Illinois fans sure thought the "master recruiter" was the answer to their woes, but it was a totally different situation.

When I heard that the good fathers at Notre Dame decided to give Charlie the axe, my mind went back to October of 2006. It was during that month that Charlie was complaining about the polls.

"One of the teams [Tennessee] that jumped us had the same game that we had. They're down, they're playing at home and they win by a field goal," Weis said Tuesday. "Another team [Florida] that jumped us wasn't even playing. They were home eating cheeseburgers and they end up jumping us. That befuddles me."

"Tell me how that works?" Weis said. "Maybe I'm just stupid. Tell me how that works?"

In the Sugar Bowl that year Notre Dame got trounced by LSU (41-14), a team Florida beat on it's way to the BCSCG. Since then Notre Dame has taken several steps backwards and Florida is on the verge of playing for a third BCS Sham-pionship in four years.

Well, look on the bright side Charlie. You have plenty of time and money to buy those cheeseburgers that seemed to help Florida win.

The Lifetime Curse

Listening to the commentary on the long overdue retirement of Coach Bowden, I want to correct one point made by virtually all those commenting - Bobby Bowden didn’t “make” the Florida State football program, any more than Steve Spurrier “made” the Florida program.

Both men led the making of their respective programs, but it is very, very different than making them. This is an important distinction. There was (and is) something inherent in the programs at Florida and Florida State that allowed them to be “made”, with the addition of the right coach.

This may sound like a narrow difference, but it is not. If any individual could “make” a program, South Carolina would be “made” by now.

Consider – in the four years prior to South Carolina’s 7-5 campaign this year, Spurrier has led the Gamecocks to a 28-22 record (0.56). In the 4 year’s prior to Spurrier, Holtz had the ‘Cocks at 25-22 (0.53) for an identical number of losses. Assuming Spurrier can win his bowl game, South Carolina will be 36-27 (0.57) for his 5 year span. During Holtz’s last 5 years they were 33-26 (0.56), virtually the identical record.

Both Spurrier and Holtz are “national” champion coaches, but neither made the Gamecocks nationally relevant. This leaves us two considerations –

A. Spurrier, and Holtz, lost “something” in their later coaching years.

B. South Carolina doesn’t possess the inherent quality of a program that can be “made”

I believe it is the second option.

How do we know that FSU, and Florida, have that something “inherent”? Well, I’ve spoken of it before, but here it is again. In 1982 the State of Florida’s “Big Three” (UF, FSU and UM) programs had exactly zero national titles. Twenty-five years later, the same “Big Three” have 10 combined recognized national titles, 40% of those available for the time period. By my count there have been 13 different head coaches at the three schools during that time, with 7 of them national title winners.

Either the State of Florida has been unusually blessed with coaching talents, or something “inherent” is going on. I believe it is the latter, fueled largely in part by the explosion of state population since the 1970’s (more talent, more money, more fans).

In retrospect is was a blessing Spurrier chose to leave when he did, and I can recall the angry voices that very much wanted him to return after Zook was fired. Had Spurrier stayed – or been rehired – Florida would be facing the same problem that Florida State has mercifully ended – a person who is bigger than the program. Moreover, a person who IS the program.

It isn’t healthy for a program when you can’t fire your coach. Listening to Dick Vitale this morning decry the way Bowden was treated, he cited the 14 year period when the Seminoles were ranked in the top 5 in the country. While this is an impressive reign by any standard, Vitale was choosing a period that ended in 2000, or nearly 9 seasons ago. Since 2000, FSU has ranked 23rd in the nation in win percentage at 0.65, the same as Wisconsin (Florida is 8th for the same period, and Miami 12th). Not bad, but a far cry from the 1st ranking for the period Vitale cited and a win percentage of 0.89.

What Vitale was saying in essence was that because Bowden did so well for Florida State in the past, he has the right to destroy a program he helped "make". I simply don’t agree.

And destroying it he was. The ‘Noles are 6-6 this year, after going 31-21 for the past 4 years, ranking them just ahead nationally of Western Michigan and Nevada-Reno (the latter who will surpass them in the 5 year rankings after this season). The team I saw at the Swamp last Saturday was not a competitive college football team. Quite honestly, they looked little different than FIU had the week before (and the stats bear this out).

That is who you are right now, Florida State.

Is it too late to turn it around? Probably not, but it was getting very close to that point. FSU still has the fertile State of Florida to recruit in, though according to Rivals.com they currently rank 37th in recruiting for 2010 right now.

Moreover, as an astute friend of mine noted, the whole “coach-in-waiting” idea steals any excitement the coaching search and hire usually generate. But I’m not willing to count FSU out quite yet.

What observers like Vitale with long memories fail to realize that the audience that is MOST important to future success has very short memories indeed. FSU last played for a national title in 2000, when the current group of recruits was 8 or 9 years old. In their formative life years FSU is roughly as successful as Hawaii or California (last 7 years). They don’t recall the glory years, even if the Vitale’s do. (For Notre Dame, on the other hand, it likely is too late. Their last “national” title occurred before most of the current NCAA players were even born. And since 2000, they have a worse winning record than Bowling Green).

Lifetime coaches are a curse, not a blessing. Coaches, while vitally important, don’t “make” programs.

But they can, and do, unmake them.

Seriously Carlos?

You just got arrested, at 3:25 AM, during SEC Championship week?