Week 13 Power Rankings

Staying with our recently revised methodology we have this –


1 Florida 2.2538
2 Alabama 2.1612
3 Texas 2.0027
4 TCU 1.9520
5 Boise St. 1.7545
6 Cincinnati 1.7171
7 Ohio St. 1.6928
8 Oregon 1.6760
9 Penn St. 1.6693
10 Virginia Tech 1.5800
11 Iowa 1.5362
12 Oklahoma 1.4827
13 Pittsburgh 1.4336
14 Georgia Tech 1.4015
15 Miami (FL) 1.3923
16 Nebraska 1.3336
17 Houston 1.3197
18 Oklahoma St. 1.3105
19 Wisconsin 1.3024
20 Oregon St. 1.2888
21 BYU 1.2784
22 Arkansas 1.2767
23 Clemson 1.2712
24 LSU 1.2700
25 Texas Tech 1.2312

For the most part, I like it. Sure Oklahoma has 5 losses, but they looked like a pretty decent team this past Saturday. We know they would beat number 18 here in Oklahoma State.

I also urge people viewing this not to get too caught up in the ranking numbers (1 through 25), but instead focus on the ranking score. Florida is very close to Alabama, but nearly twice as “good” as Texas Tech by these rankings. What you should take away from this is that Florida should play a very close game to, say ‘Bama or Texas, but likely beat Oklahoma very handily (52% better score than Oklahoma). Likewise Arkansas and LSU are nearly equals, and we saw that this past weekend.

And to eat up some bandwidth, here are the rest –

26 West Virginia 1.2198
27 Central Mich. 1.2166
28 North Carolina 1.2151
29 Southern California 1.2054
30 Arizona 1.1914
31 California 1.1724
32 Rutgers 1.1394
33 Mississippi 1.1324
34 Missouri 1.1105
35 Connecticut 1.1077
36 South Fla. 1.0972
37 Fresno St. 1.0961
38 Utah 1.0960
39 Air Force 1.0873
40 Stanford 1.0779
41 Auburn 1.0763
42 Troy 1.0595
43 Tennessee 1.0575
44 Georgia 1.0544
45 Mississippi St. 1.0295
46 UCF 1.0278
47 Navy 1.0216
48 Nevada 1.0202
49 South Carolina 0.9998
50 Florida St. 0.9996
51 Boston College 0.9942
52 East Carolina 0.9913
53 Michigan St. 0.9665
54 Temple 0.9336
55 Ohio 0.9231
56 Kentucky 0.9159
57 Notre Dame 0.9131
58 Bowling Green 0.8855
59 Minnesota 0.8774
60 Kansas 0.8555
61 Louisiana Tech 0.8147
62 Texas A&M 0.8114
63 UCLA 0.8088
64 North Carolina St. 0.8071
65 Southern Miss. 0.8021
66 Arizona St. 0.8008
67 Middle Tenn. 0.7893
68 Northern Ill. 0.7885
69 Kansas St. 0.7859
70 Purdue 0.7859
71 Washington 0.7852
72 SMU 0.7850
73 Northwestern 0.7786
74 Wake Forest 0.7762
75 Utah St. 0.7658
76 Michigan 0.7649
77 Buffalo 0.7613
78 Iowa St. 0.7580
79 Baylor 0.7472
80 Syracuse 0.7453
81 UNLV 0.7356
82 Marshall 0.7274
83 Illinois 0.7224
84 Idaho 0.7155
85 Virginia 0.7086
86 Louisville 0.7061
87 La.-Monroe 0.6850
88 Tulsa 0.6846
89 Colorado 0.6785
90 Arkansas St. 0.6770
91 UAB 0.6745
92 Duke 0.6706
93 Wyoming 0.6596
94 Indiana 0.6562
95 Vanderbilt 0.6351
96 FIU 0.6296
97 San Diego St. 0.6290
98 Hawaii 0.6282
99 La.-Lafayette 0.6263
100 Fla. Atlantic 0.6244
101 Colorado St. 0.6190
102 Toledo 0.6112
103 Memphis 0.6008
104 Maryland 0.5963
105 UTEP 0.5793
106 North Texas 0.5665
107 Akron 0.5572
108 Miami (OH) 0.5431
109 Kent St. 0.5333
110 Ball St. 0.5243
111 San Jose St. 0.5088
112 Tulane 0.4875
113 Western Mich. 0.4649
114 Western Ky. 0.4578
115 Rice 0.4463
116 New Mexico 0.4445
117 Army 0.4243
118 Washington St. 0.4134
119 Eastern Mich. 0.3788
120 New Mexico St. 0.3308

ACCelerated Decline, Part 2

So the 3rd and 4th team in the SEC East, both 7-5, defeat the two teams slated to play for the ACC title.

Need anything else be said?

Revised Power Rankings

I’ve noted my struggles with my current methodology in my Power Rankings that allows teams with multiple losses to be ranked higher than they ought to be based on having strong schedule strength and other data points.

In particular Oklahoma troubles me. With 5 losses they come in at 11th in my poll because of their high national rankings in Scoring Offense and Defense, and strong SOS. However, since they have lost virtually every game against a decent opponent, their SOS is helping them in my rankings while it has hurt them in their overall record.

I’m not alone in this conundrum – Sagarin ranks Oklahoma 7th in his predictor system.

Reader “Robert” points out in Oklahoma’s case their national stats are skewed by their games against Idaho State and Tulsa, in which the Sooners won by a combined score of 109-0, impacting both their national ranks in Scoring Offense and Defense. He also suggested I find a way to make multiple losses count more against teams.

I may have found a method to do just that.

Right now I count the Win-Loss record as a mere percentage – a record of 8-2, for instance, is a 0.80 score. What I have done here is use a multiplier for losses that works like this –

W/ (W+(L*L)) =W/L Value

Here’s how that works practically –

For an 11-0 team

11/ (11+(0*0) = 1.0 (the highest value, and unchanged from old formula).

For a 10-1 team

10/ (10+(1*1)) = 0.9091 (the same value, again, as the old formula as 1 times 1 equals 1)

For a 9-2 team

9/ (9+(2*2))= 0.6923 (here is the first change, where a 9-2 was 0.8182 before, it is 0.6923 now)

And, for a 6-5 team

6/ (6+(5*5)) = 0.1935 (A very BIG difference here, instead of the old 0.5455 the score is now 0.1935).

Using this methodology we get the following top 25 –

1 Alabama
2 Florida
3 TCU
4 Texas
5 Cincinnati
6 Ohio St.
7 Penn St.
8 Oregon
9 Virginia Tech
10 Boise St.
11 Georgia Tech
12 Pittsburgh
13 Oklahoma St.
14 Iowa
15 North Carolina
16 Clemson
17 Miami (FL)
18 Nebraska
19 Oklahoma
20 Arkansas
21 Mississippi
22 Wisconsin
23 Houston
24 Texas Tech
25 Oregon St.

To me, this “looks” better the last poll, even with Oklahoma at 19th.

Let me hear what you think.

Week 12 Power Rankings

Our top 25 Power Rankings using the methodology found here.

1 Alabama 11 0 2.1913
2 Florida 11 0 2.1673
3 TCU 11 0 2.0969
4 Texas 11 0 2.0249
5 Virginia Tech 8 3 1.8242
6 Cincinnati 10 0 1.8185
7 Ohio St. 10 2 1.8025
8 Oregon 9 2 1.7630
9 Penn St. 10 2 1.7629
10 North Carolina 8 3 1.6541
11 Oklahoma 6 5 1.6375
12 Clemson 8 3 1.6324
13 Oklahoma St. 9 2 1.6138
14 Arkansas 7 4 1.6118
15 Miami (FL) 8 3 1.5859
16 Iowa 10 2 1.5825
17 Boise St. 11 0 1.5639
18 Georgia Tech 10 1 1.5632
19 Pittsburgh 9 1 1.5463
20 Texas Tech 7 4 1.5426
21 Mississippi 8 3 1.5220
22 Nebraska 8 3 1.5165
23 Arizona 6 4 1.5101
24 Wisconsin 8 3 1.5048
25 South Fla. 7 3 1.4339

Alabama takes the number 1 slot from Florida but the margin is very narrow. By this poll the Tide are 1.1% “better” than Florida at a neutral location.

Oddities include Virginia Tech in 5th, North Carolina in 10th, and most especially 5 loss Oklahoma in 11th. The Sooner’s just came off a total thumping by the team ranked 20th here (Texas Tech) at Tech. (The poll does indicate that the Red Raiders would be a slight edge to Oklahoma at home). The reasons they continue to rank so high are –

28th ranked Offense
8th ranked Defense
10th ranked Schedule

I admit it is driving me nuts, but this is the system that has seemed to work so well in the past, and I’m not going to manipulate the data to get the results I want. Maybe it will sort out a little better in the end.

The rest of the poll passes the “eye test” for me. Other notable’s ranks –

28. LSU
36. USC
39. FSU
40. Tennessee
42. Georgia
48. Notre Dame
50. South Carolina

UPDATE: As noted, I’ve been questioning my methodology that resulted in ranking Oklahoma 11th.

Perhaps not anymore.

Jeff Sagarin of BCS computer relevance ranks the Sooners 7th by his “predictor” rankings, which he considers his most accurate rankings for team quality. (The Sooners are 30th in the rankings he uses for the BCS).

Apparently Sagarin’s method sees something in Oklahoma too.

Monday Pollin’

My present efforts (Mumme Ballot is first 12) –

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Florida
2	Alabama
3	TCU	1
4	Texas	1
5	Cincinnati
6	Georgia Tech
7	Boise State	1
8	Pittsburgh	1
9	Ohio State	2
10	Oregon
11	Iowa	1
12	Penn State	2
13	Virginia Tech	4
14	LSU	7
15	Oklahoma State	2
16	Clemson	5
17	Miami (Florida)	2
18	Oregon State	4
19	California	5
20	North Carolina	2
21	Brigham Young	2
22	Houston	3
23	Mississippi
24	Southern Cal
25	Utah
Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: Wisconsin (#15), Rutgers (#16), Stanford (#20).

My spots one through five are based on examining the schedule strength, the scoring offense, and the scoring defense of the five teams in those slots. They are –

Florida

SOS – 37th
SO – 10th
SD – 1st

Alabama

SOS- 24th
SO – 23rd
SD – 2nd

TCU

SOS – 32nd
SO – 5th
SD – 7th

Texas

SOS – 50th
SO – 2nd
SD – 6th

Cincinnati

SOS – 53rd
SO – 6th
SD – 16th


Based on this, TCU seems to have a slight edge on Texas.

As for the rest of it, who knows? The ACC is a particularly difficult mess.

Let’s hear what you have to say.

Big Recruiting Weekend

Since Urban Meyer took over as the head coach at the University of Florida he has used the biggest home games of the season as recruiting tools. This weekend is no different. Saturday’s game against Florida State might appear on paper to be a laugher, but that couldn’t be farther from the truth. Saturday marks the final home game for the senior class that includes Brandon Spikes and Tim Tebow. The last home game for the winningest class in SEC history. Saturday’s game will also have a who’s who list of high school prospects in attendance. As of today, here is the list of official and unofficial visitors for the game:

Bold = verbal commit to Gators
National Position Rank in parenthesis


Jeff Luc ***** MLB (1)
Matt Elam ***** Safety (1)
LaMarcus Joyner ***** CB (2)
Chris Martin ***** DE (3) committed to Notre Dame
Mack Brown, Jr. ***** RB (4)
Christian Green ***** WR (4)
Chris Dunkley ***** WR (5)
Kenny Stills ***** WR (6)
Adrian Coxson ***** WR (8) committed to Penn St.
Gerald Christian **** TE (4)
Jaylen Watkins **** CB (4)
Cody Riggs **** CB (7)
Chaz Green **** OT (10)
Ivan McCartney **** WR (14)
Owamagbe Odighizuwa **** DE (14)
Neiron Ball **** OLB (15)
Ian Silberman **** OT (17)
Jordan Haden **** Safety (25)
Lynden Trail **** DE (29)
Solomon Patton **** WR (36)
Trey Burton *** QB (28)
Jonathan Hankins *** DT (49)
Quinton Dunbar *** WR (55)

Tidbits

I don’t want to kick a man when he is down, but after the revelation this week that a 4th player was arrested this month in Knoxville I have to ask the question: Was Al Davis right? Is Lane Kiffin a pathological liar incapable of telling the truth? When reporters question the Tennessee head coach after the arrest of 3 players for attempted armed robbery, Kiffin stated that the program made it 11 months and 11 days without an incident. Unfortunately, for Volunteer fans, that wasn’t exactly true. You see five days earlier, Nyshier Oliver, a freshman, was arrested for shoplifting a $110 shirt from Dillard’s the day before the Tennessee/Memphis game. The staff was aware of the trouble since Oliver, who was on the initial roster for the game, did not dress out. My understanding is that Oliver has not been a part of team activities since the incident.

FSU – my sources in Tallahassee have told me that Greg Hudson has emerged as the leading candidate to replace Mickey Andrews as defensive coordinator next year. Hudson is currently the DC at East Carolina University.

FSU – who doesn’t enjoy a little interview with Ann Bowden?

Florida - The Gators received a verbal commitment from Josh Shaw yesterday. Josh Shaw is a 6’1” 180lb cornerback from Eureka, CA. Shaw chose the Gators over Ohio State and USC, and had offers from over 25 schools. Shaw’s commitment adds to what is already the best incoming secondary in the nation.

CBS – this year has been far and away Verne Lundquist’s worst year of broadcasting. Sure he has that catchy “Oh My” call and sometimes it is exclaimed at the appropriate time. But this year, Verne has become Gary Danielson’s little brother. What does that mean, you ask. Well Danielson, who in my book is the best in the business, will point something out during the game and harp on it the same way your little brother does until it loses its effect. Using the Florida/South Carolina game as an example – Danielson quickly pointed out that Stephen Garcia had 2 passes tipped in the first series, and both were on 3 step drops. Any time a pass was tipped after that we could count on Verne saying "there's another tipped pass". In fact during one series Verne exclaimed (remember Verne doesn't say anything during a play he yells it) “Oh my, another pass tipped.” The replay showed that the pass did not get tipped, no one was actually close to tipping it. Danielson mercifully said “actually Verne that one just went right through his hands”. Danielson astutely points out something (like he did during the LSU/Florida game regarding the dive play being called instead of read) and then Verne beats into the ground, even to the point of making stuff up, until you are sick of hearing it. There aren’t very many games left this year, but let’s try to figure out Verne’s little brother moment this week just for fun. Maybe the Mergz can come over and we can make it into a drinking game like this one.

Power Ranking

Here are our week 11 Power Rankings, with the methodology explained here.

TCU moves up to 2nd overall based not only on their outstanding offensive and defensive rankings, but also their SOS which places them 22nd in the country, or five spots ahead of Florida.

And yes, that is 4 loss Oklahoma in 5th place, a result I’m not entirely comfortable with. But much of the reason I created this Power Ranking system was to remove bias from the procedure – notably my bias – and base the results on statistical fact, not impression. Oklahoma has lost 4 games, but by a total of 12 points (14-13, 21-20, 16-13 and 10-7). They are playing outstanding defense with the nation’s 5th best by Scoring Defense, and have the nation’s 16th best offense at 33.3 points per game. Finally, schedule-wise they are 8th in the nation.

Looking at it another way, the only team with a both higher Scoring Offense and Scoring Defense than Oklahoma is Florida. And if you consider all three metrics (Offense, Defense and Schedule Strength) no team has higher values in all three areas than Oklahoma.

In other words, Oklahoma is one pretty good 4 loss team.

My top 25 in Power Rankings with their scores –

1 Florida 2.2107
2 TCU 2.1878
3 Texas 2.1307
4 Alabama 2.1017
5 Oklahoma 1.9064
6 Ohio St. 1.8605
7 Virginia Tech 1.8582
8 Cincinnati 1.7677
9 Penn St. 1.7491
10 Oregon 1.7382
11 Clemson 1.6924
12 Oklahoma St. 1.6683
13 Iowa 1.6451
14 Boise St. 1.6334
15 Arkansas 1.6273
16 Wisconsin 1.5985
17 Rutgers 1.5860
18 North Carolina 1.5419
19 Oregon St. 1.5413
20 Miami (FL) 1.5374
21 Georgia Tech 1.5374
22 Pittsburgh 1.5356
23 LSU 1.5257
24 Nebraska 1.5126
25 Arizona 1.4836


Once again I use these rankings for game score predictions, and have done so with some reasonable success. How this works is thus –

Take the rankings of each team and multiply by 27 (average points scored in a NCAA game).

Subtract the higher from the lower.

Adjust by 3 points (or 2.5, depending on your preference) for home field.

You have your spread. For example in the Colorado at Oklahoma State this Thursday -

Oklahoma State = 1.6683
Colorado = 0.8135

1.6683 * 27 = 45.04

0.8135 * 27 = 21.96

Difference is 23.08. Add 3 for Okie State at home, and they are 26 points better than Colorado. (The spread is about 14, so take the Cowboys – for fun only, of course).


And, in case you are curious here are teams 26 to 120 –

26 South Fla. 1.4736
27 Houston 1.4511
28 Mississippi 1.4442
29 Connecticut 1.4345
30 Texas Tech 1.4211
31 Fresno St. 1.3977
32 Boston College 1.3969
33 Navy 1.3837
34 Mississippi St. 1.3786
35 Air Force 1.3704
36 Missouri 1.3653
37 Florida St. 1.3593
38 Southern California 1.3519
39 Tennessee 1.3386
40 Georgia 1.3318
41 California 1.3043
42 Notre Dame 1.2941
43 Michigan St. 1.2933
44 West Virginia 1.2733
45 Auburn 1.2726
46 Stanford 1.2362
47 Kentucky 1.1829
48 Minnesota 1.1821
49 South Carolina 1.1803
50 Central Mich. 1.1780
51 Utah 1.1643
52 BYU 1.1392
53 Troy 1.1340
54 UCF 1.1056
55 Arizona St. 1.0985
56 Iowa St. 1.0768
57 UCLA 1.0759
58 Nevada 1.0727
59 Kansas 1.0670
60 SMU 1.0662
61 Baylor 1.0579
62 Purdue 1.0527
63 Washington 1.0491
64 Louisiana Tech 1.0354
65 Southern Miss. 1.0351
66 Kansas St. 1.0252
67 East Carolina 1.0210
68 Bowling Green 1.0124
69 Wake Forest 1.0013
70 Louisville 0.9976
71 Michigan 0.9917
72 North Carolina St. 0.9881
73 Idaho 0.9750
74 Virginia 0.9682
75 Duke 0.9665
76 Marshall 0.9624
77 UNLV 0.9371
78 Texas A&M 0.9346
79 Syracuse 0.9313
80 Colorado St. 0.9282
81 Buffalo 0.9261
82 Temple 0.9198
83 Indiana 0.9174
84 Northern Ill. 0.9023
85 La.-Monroe 0.8981
86 Wyoming 0.8928
87 Tulsa 0.8841
88 Northwestern 0.8740
89 San Diego St. 0.8729
90 UAB 0.8472
91 Illinois 0.8327
92 Arkansas St. 0.8292
93 Toledo 0.8269
94 Middle Tenn. 0.8226
95 Colorado 0.8135
96 Fla. Atlantic 0.7938
97 Utah St. 0.7814
98 FIU 0.7681
99 Hawaii 0.7561
100 Vanderbilt 0.7538
101 La.-Lafayette 0.7378
102 UTEP 0.7217
103 North Texas 0.7048
104 Akron 0.7040
105 Maryland 0.6932
106 Kent St. 0.6868
107 Ohio 0.6808
108 Western Mich. 0.6778
109 Memphis 0.6708
110 Miami (OH) 0.6436
111 Tulane 0.6384
112 San Jose St. 0.6188
113 Army 0.6086
114 Ball St. 0.5426
115 Washington St. 0.5161
116 Western Ky. 0.4568
117 Rice 0.4540
118 New Mexico St. 0.4413
119 New Mexico 0.4034
120 Eastern Mich. 0.4011

Eastern Michigan – the nation’s worst team.

Consequences

Proving that old adage of “If you can't be a good example, then you'll just have to serve as a horrible warning" abundantly true, one time Florida commit Nu'Keese Richardson, along with teammate Mike Edwards, have been kicked off the Tennessee team per ESPN.

Monday Pollin’

First of all I made a mistake in my BlogPoll last week, which I unfortunately didn’t have time to post before it went final. As BlogPoll maestro Brian pointed out, I had Ohio State ranked 9 spots ahead of USC last week, which was odd considering the Trojans won at OSU, and they had the same W-L record. My mistake was ranking Ohio State too high, not the Trojans too low, and I’m sure *you* would have caught it had I posted my draft. My bad.

As for USC, they continue to be ranked too high in every poll that ranks them at all. This is a bad football team that, despite having played only the 45th toughest schedule in the nation per the NCAA, is 61st in scoring offense and 40th in scoring defense. (Actually they are tied for both – tied with Georgia for scoring offense, and Kentucky for scoring defense. Let that settle in for a second.)

Or, look at it this way – what does USC have in common with the following?

South Florida
Northwestern
Michigan State
Wyoming
Utah State

The teams above, like USC are all ranked 5th in their respective conferences. Right now, in an approximate SEC analogy, USC (west) is equivalent to USC (east) – a mid tier team.

Here is my draft. My Mumme ballot is the first 12.

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Florida
2	Alabama
3	Texas
4	TCU
5	Cincinnati
6	Georgia Tech
7	LSU
8	Boise State
9	Pittsburgh
10	Oregon	5
11	Ohio State	1
12	Iowa	2
13	Oklahoma State	7
14	Penn State	1
15	Wisconsin	1
16	Rutgers
17	Virginia Tech	1
18	North Carolina
19	Miami (Florida)	2
20	Stanford
21	Clemson
22	Oregon State	2
23	Brigham Young	2
24	California
25	Houston	14
Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: Arizona (#18), South Florida (#19), Southern Cal (#21), Utah (#22), West Virginia (#23).

The final eight or so are a mish-mash. How to you separate a bunch of three loss teams, many that have defeated each other?

You comments and suggestions are solicited as always. Maybe this time I can avoid an error that gets called out by Brian.

A Defensive Warning Sign?

One thing I have noticed over the past several years of compiling statistical data is a reasonably reliable indicator that a team is headed for trouble – the giving up of significant points in any single game (not including overtime).

How so? In this decade there have been six BCS conference teams that have gone undefeated. Of those teams, none gave up more than 31 points in any single regular season game. Their worst point surrendered by individual game were –

2000 Oklahoma – 31
2001 Miami – 27
2002 Ohio State – 21
2004 Auburn – 28
2004 USC – 28

Now look at Oregon this season, recently said to be playing “the best football of anyone”. But were they really? How about that second game of the year where they beat Purdue 38-36. In giving up 36 points to the Boilermakers, the Ducks surrendered more than any unbeaten team this decade did in the regular season (yes, I know they had already lost, but the point is whether they might lose again).

I first noticed this “warning sign” in 2006 when Ohio State beat Michigan in “the game of the century” 42-39. What I saw in that game was a defense that had the prospect of surrendering 39 points, not an offense that scored 42. And in their very next game, the BCS title game, they gave up even more.

There are many examples of this occurring over the past several years. Besides giving up 45 in their loss to Texas last season, Oklahoma also surrendered 35 at Kansas State and 41 at Oklahoma State.


I have noted variations on this phenomena in the past, starting in early 2007 in regard to then highly ranked Louisville, who would later go on to lose several games. Likewise I have pointed out that California and Oregon flashed warnings, only to succumb later on in similar fashion.

This season you might have seen it with Southern Cal in their win over Oregon State when the Trojans gave up 36 points to the Beavers (not to mention 482 yards). It was a precursor to their 27 point blowout loss to Oregon.

It is important to note that NOT having a “warning game” doesn’t mean you are bound to be undefeated either. It is just a significant indicator of what seems to happen when you get to the point where you face superior talent (like Ohio State did in 2006). I remember watching the much heralded Big 12 earlier last season giving up huge points in games and thinking, “These teams are going to be in trouble sometime”. And eventually, they were.

Likewise, 31 points given up in a single regular season game (not including overtime) is the highest for every 1 loss BCS Champion of the decade. The exception was LSU, who played 2 overtime games that skew their statistics. The maximum points given in a single contest by the other champions were -

2003 LSU - 24
2005 Texas - 29
2006 Florida – 28 (Arkansas SEC Championship)
2008 Florida – 31 (the Ole Miss loss)


For which of our current undefeated teams might this be a problem? Here are the highest points surrendered by each of the unbeaten –

1 Florida 20
2 Alabama 24
3 Texas 24
4 TCU 21
5 Cincinnati 45
6 Boise State 35

If giving up a high number of points in any single game is an indicator of a fatal flaw and future failure, then Cincy and Boise are in trouble somewhere down the line. In the Bearcat’s case West Virginia and Pitt loom large. As for Boise State it may not be until their bowl game that their defensive weakness is revealed.

But I’m guessing in Cincinnati’s case, they are very close to getting exposed.

Now I’m not suggesting this is some magic bullet, but thus far this decade it has played out this way. I’m also not suggesting 31 points is a hard-and-fast rule. But giving up a large number of points in the 30’s seems to be a valuable warning indicator, at least when it comes time to play high level talent.

I’m going to do some further work on this from a historical standpoint. One place it seems to hold up – the 1995 and 1996 Gators. In 1995 Florida did indeed have a “warning game”, when they twice gave up 30 plus points in wins – (62-37 over Tennessee, and 49-38 over Auburn). We know how that season ended – a 62 to 24 blowout loss to Nebraska. However in 1996 with a better defense, the worst points given up was 30 to Arkansas in the SEC Championship game (29 regular season).

Power Rankings – Week 10

Presented are our week 10 Power Rankings, with the methodology explained here.

Remember these are an effort to gauge the relative quality of the teams – as in who would beat who in a neutral setting. They are not a merit related ranking system. Hence, teams like Virginia Tech come in higher than they might on a merit basis.

Our week 10 results, with comments to follow.

1 Florida 9 0 2.2177
2 Texas 9 0 2.0723
3 TCU 9 0 1.9983
4 Alabama 9 0 1.9961
5 Virginia Tech 6 3 1.9083
6 Penn St. 8 2 1.8479
7 Ohio St. 8 2 1.8296
8 Oklahoma 5 4 1.8013
9 Oregon 7 2 1.7680
10 Clemson 6 3 1.6905
11 Cincinnati 9 0 1.6583
12 LSU 7 2 1.6194
13 Iowa 9 1 1.6056
14 Wisconsin 7 2 1.5951
15 South Fla. 6 2 1.5759
16 Oklahoma St. 7 2 1.5746
17 Oregon St. 6 3 1.5531
18 Miami (FL) 7 2 1.5329
19 Arizona 6 2 1.5228
20 Houston 8 1 1.5199
21 Arkansas 5 4 1.4800
22 Pittsburgh 8 1 1.4572
23 Boise St. 9 0 1.4536
24 Georgia Tech 9 1 1.4522
25 Southern California 7 2 1.4500

The ranking scores (last column) can be used to compare individual teams. For instance by this method, Florida is 7% “better” than Texas (2.2177/2.0723).

I’ve used these scores in the past for “investment” purposes and been relatively successful. Without getting too involved, I would estimate Florida was 3.9 points “better” than Texas on a neutral field. So if Florida was to play at Texas, we would be looking at a pick’em.

In the past I’ve put up predictions based on this for big games, and if there is any interest I may do so again.

Why so high for 3 loss Virginia Tech? Well the Hokies have played one of the toughest schedules to date I have ever seen. They have played teams with a record of 47-17, or 0.7343. Florida this year so far, ranked 18th in the NCAA, has played teams with a 35-25, or 0.5833.

By way of contrast Oklahoma, which played last year’s toughest schedule, ended up with a 0.6551 opponent’s records, so a number over 0.70 is virtually without precedent. However VT’s cumulative opposition right now is 0.6092, so their ranking will fall as the year progresses (likewise with Oklahoma now at 8th).

The Curious Inertia of Southern Cal

The new BCS rankings are out. First, you have the following top six -

1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4.TCU
5. Cincinnati
6. Boise State

All are undefeated. Hard to quibble too much with the order.

Then we have -

7. Georgia Tech
8. LSU

Tech is 9-1 with its sole loss at Miami, so why not?

LSU has two losses, so some other one-loss teams could be argued more deserving, but the Tigers lost to the 1st and 2nd ranked teams, so no real controversy there.

Then -

9. USC

Asinine, your name is college football rankings.

Does anybody paying even the least bit of attention to college football think this year’s Trojans are the “9th best team”? Or, does anyone think 2 loss USC is deserving by resume of being 9th?

Seriously?

The Trojans moved up 3 spots in the BCS after narrowly beating 4-5 Arizona State 14-9, in a game Southern Cal totaled 258 yards (to the Sun Devil’s 347). Arizona State turned it over 4 times, and still USC barely won.

Southern Cal’s national standings right now -

Scoring Offense - 53rd
Scoring Defense - 24th
NCAA Strength of Schedule - 44th

Two loss South Florida outranks Southern Cal in every category above (33rd, 23rd and 25th). The BCS finds USF at 24th.

Not only would I rank USC similar to South Florida, I believe USF is “better” than USC, and would likely handle them head to head.

Maybe there is some cosmic force behind USC’s rankings that I don’t really understand. Call it “Trojaninertia”. This is a team that lost to Washington, played Arizona State, Oregon State and Notre Dame (recent loser to Navy) to the wire, and was destroyed by Oregon, who in turn got blasted by Stanford this past weekend.

That is the same Oregon that is now ranked 4 spots BEHIND the Trojans in the BCS. With the same record.

The BCS system is simply awful. Here’s hoping its demise is imminent.

Saturday review

1. I really cannot figure out our offense. It is almost as though, the staff says this is all we need to do to win, rather than figuring out a plan to be the most effective offense possible. I think our staff has told the offense the only way we lose is if you guys turn the ball over. And you know what? They are right. This defense is one of the best of all time. 6 tds in 9 games - enough said.



2. If you think Tebow is taking too many hits now, wait until the Alabama game. I said this a couple of weeks ago and Saturday did nothing to change my opinion - Carl Johnson is not a starting Left Tackle in the SEC. Expect Nick Saban's defense in SECCG to blitz extensively and focus on Johnson. His reaction time is slow and his footwork is poor - not a good combination.



3. How happy are the people on the Rose Bowl committee? Thanks to Oregon's loss to Stanford and Iowa's loss to Northwestern, the Rose Bowl is now just another meaningless game between the Pac-10 and Big 10. I would think that Rose Bowl officials are pulling for Ohio State to beat Iowa next weekend (their fans travel great) and for Oregon to win out. As an added bonus to Oregon's loss, now Boise State fans can't say "we beat Oregon" as proudly.



4. The coaching carousel has officially started turning. Notre Dame's 2nd loss in 3 years at home to Navy has to be the straw that breaks the camel's back right? Notre Dame fans have got to be thinking Jon Gruden, Brian Kelly or bust. But my suggestion for Front Butt's replacement is a little outside of the box - Jim Harbaugh. Harbaugh is a winner, is familiar with recruiting players that have to meet a higher academic standard, and has shown that he can beat some elite teams with lesser talent.

5. FSU's bowl streak will end this season. The Seminoles are 4-5 and just lost their starting QB for the season. Their last 3 games are @Wake Forest, home against Maryland and @Florida, 1-2 is not out of the question, especially with a freshman QB.

6. While the opening at Memphis will surely tempt Charlie Strong, if offered, I have heard that the Coach Strong will stay in Gainesville with this junior class.

Sudden Media Meme Death

Oregon - "Playing the best football in the nation right now"

New, seemingly incomprehensible thought - " Maybe beating USC in 2009 not a big deal"

Deader than the meme - "Who deserves to be higher ranked, Oregon or Boise?"

Heading into the weekend

Boise State continues to make the argument that they don't belong in the talk about belonging in the BCS series. The argument against the smaller schools isn't that they can't hang with the big boys in one game, the argument is they can't do it week after week. The Broncos look great in their 1 or 2 games against BCS caliber conferences, but the fact of the matter is they are struggling against a horrific La Tech team. Put Boise State in the Pac-10, Big 12 or SEC and they are, at best, a middle of the pack team.

Saturday's games:

1. South Carolina/Arkansas - look for Ryan Mallett to lead the Hogs to the win against the Gamecocks. South Carolina's season is now all about their game with the Gators next weekend.

2. Clemson/FSU - CJ Spiller thrusts himself further into the Heisman discussion. Clemson takes another step towards to the ACC Championship Game. Take the over.

3. Alabama/LSU - For reason I think LSU will pull off the major upset here. I think they put 8 or 9 in the box and dare 'Bama to throw the ball. I don't think Greg McElroy can win a game - maybe he proves me wrong. I expect Russell Sheppard (LSU's touted freshman) to be heavily involved in the offense - running the ball.

4. Florida/Vandy - expect the offense to continue to click and the defense shouldn't miss Spikes this week. The Gators should score a ton of points (45+), and look for the offense to be just as diverse as it was last week.

5. Penn St./Ohio State - this is supposed to be a big game, but does anyone care outside of Happy Valley and Columbus? Penn State should win in a defensive struggle. Penn State is the only team allowing less points per game than the Gators.

6. Oregon State/Cal - Mike Riley's teams always start slow and this year is no different. It was their offense that exposed USC's defense before Oregon de-panted them. Cal struggles against teams that can run the ball. Look for the Beavers to pull the upset.

7. ND/Navy - another game for Clausen to pad his stats. I see Clausen and Ingram as the biggest threats to Tebow's second Heisman, although if LSU wins Ingram's chances will fade.

Initial Power Rankings

With each team having 8 games played, it is time for our inaugural Power Rankings of 2009.

Here is the formula I will be using –

(SD Ratio + SO Ratio+ W/L Record) * SOS = Power Value

Explained further –

SD Ratio is a ratio of each team’s scoring defense to the best scoring defense. For example Florida has the 2nd Scoring Defense in the nation at 11.0 ppg. This is made into a ratio that compares it to the top Scoring Defense, held by Penn State. The ratio in this case is 0.848

SO Ratio is a ratio of each team’s scoring offense to the best scoring offense. Using the Florida example, our offense is 6th overall at 36.0 ppg. The best offense is Texas at 41.75 ppg. Thus, Florida’s ratio is 0.862 of the best.

W/L record is a simple calculation of % record, in Florida’s case 1.000 (8-0).

We add the three components together, in our example totaling 2.710457. Then the number is multiplied by the strength of schedule per the NCAA, which in Florida’s case is a ratio of 0.849781 (7th in the nation right now). The end result is 2.3033.

It has, in my opinion, done an excellent job in the past of determining the relative strength of the teams. Coincidently, the number one team in each of our past three Final Power Rankings has been the BCS Champion for that year. This has occurred despite the unbiased nature of our ranking system.

Our intial top 25, and their scores -

1 Florida 2.3033
2 Texas 2.0085
3 Penn St. 1.8888
4 Oregon 1.8489
5 Virginia Tech 1.8433
6 TCU 1.8416
7 Alabama 1.8233
8 Oklahoma 1.8063
9 Iowa 1.7644
10 Cincinnati 1.7511
11 Clemson 1.6563
12 Wisconsin 1.5854
13 Arizona 1.5765
14 Ohio St. 1.5496
15 South Fla. 1.5472
16 Oklahoma St. 1.5290
17 Southern California 1.5056
18 LSU 1.4974
19 Miami (FL) 1.4973
20 Pittsburgh 1.4919
21 Boise St. 1.4814
22 Houston 1.4489
23 Georgia Tech 1.4441
24 Texas Tech 1.4098
25 Tennessee 1.4018

UPDATE: I put up this post in haste this afternoon without really examining the results. I would say, having the chance to do so, it looks pretty good to me. For the most part it passes "the eye test".

VT and Oklahoma may seem pretty high, but their SOS has been tough (VT's is nation's best). Alabama is a little lower than I might have expected, but their SOS is 43rd (but sure to improve when they face LSU). Likewise LSU at 18th, with an SOS of 58th.

How about Clemson at 11th? Their 6th overall SOS helps get them there despite 3 losses.

And this system is pretty definitive between who wins the TCU-Boise State battle.

Monday Pollin'

Here's what I have -

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Florida
2	Alabama
3	Texas	1
4	Cincinnati	1
5	Iowa	1
6	TCU	1
7	Boise State
8	LSU
9	Oregon
10	Georgia Tech
11	Penn State	1
12	Houston	1
13	Utah	7
14	Pittsburgh	2
15	Oklahoma State
16	California	3
17	Southern Cal	6
18	Arizona	3
19	Notre Dame	5
20	Ohio State
21	Wisconsin
22	South Florida
23	Virginia Tech	9
24	Oklahoma
25	West Virginia	7
Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: Miami (Florida) (#17), South Carolina (#22), Mississippi (#23), Central Michigan (#25).

Not terribly controversial, I know. Let's hear your take.

Weekend fallout

1. If it isn't one thing, its another. Rather than being able to focus on (and rejoice over) the fact that in the 8th game the spread offense appeared, the Gator staff is dealing with the fallout from a despicable play by Brandon Spikes. Coach Meyer was quoted that he was going to have to have a "serious talk" with Spikes. Expect Meyer to suspend Spikes for the Vandy game, even if the move was retaliation for Washaun Ealy spitting in Spikes's face earlier in the game.

2. Welcome to the Heisman raise Mr. Tebow. Sure Mark Ingram has had a nice season rushing the ball, and Jimmy Clausen has done a nice job snatching victory from the jaws of defeat, but if Tim Tebow plays like he played last Saturday for the rest of the season, college football will have its second two-time Heisman Trophy winner.

3. Congratulations (sort of). Congratulations to Tim Tebow for breaking Herschel Walker's record for SEC rushing touchdowns. Georgia fans, and Verne Lundquist, are quick to point out that Herschel got his numbers in 3 years and Tim has gotten his in 4. Many people like to counter that argument with the fact that Tim is a quarterback and Herschel was a running back. The ultimate counter-argument is rushing attempts - Herschel 994, Tim 614 (so far).

4. My favorite comment from a Georgia fan regarding the black helmets: "I say let these guys continue wearing the black helmets until they show they deserve to strap on the red ones."

5. It will be interesting to see how USC responds to getting their butts kicked. The 27 point loss to Oregon was Pete Carroll's largest margin of defeat since the 11 point loss to ND during his first year at USC.

6. Oregon is playing the best football in America right now and if Boise St. wasn't the team that beat them, they would be ranked in the top 5. With all the bitchin' and moaning coming from the non-BCS conferences, there is no way Oregon gets ranked ahead of Boise St until the Broncos lose.

7. Don't look now but Lane Kiffin has his Volunteers at 4-4 and ready to make a bowl eligibility push. With Memphis, Ole Miss, Kentucky and Vanderbilt left on the schedule, Tennessee is in position for a New Year's Day bowl game. Which would make sense for Monte Kiffin, since most people his age travel to Florida in the winter.

8. All is not well in Knoxville though. Nu'Keese Richardson, the recruit out of Pahokee whose pledge to the Volunteers led to Lane's proclamation that Urban Meyer cheated and that the residents of Pahokee weren't smart enough to fax a letter of intent, was a no-show at Tennessee's practice on Sunday. Apparently Nu'Keese has been dissatisfied with his playing time (promises of early PT was a major reason for signing with Vols) and he has had major run-ins with his position coach starting with one during the game against the Gators. It will be interesting to see if Lane kisses and makes up with Nu'Keese (for the good of the program) or if Nu'Keese walks and maybe we will find out how he got that Range Rover.

9

Congrats to the 2009 SEC East Champions

And What’s with Georgia?

With a little help from our good friend Lane Kiffin, Florida is the 2009 SEC East Champion. Pencil in your trip to Atlanta.

As for the win that put us there, I’m really starting to wonder if Georgia hasn’t entered the realm of unhealthy obsession of all things Florida. How in the world does it make sense in a season that you are 4-3 to break with a hundred plus year tradition and wear black helmets for the first time? Against a team you are solid double digit underdogs, at that. I thought the black helmets looked very cool, but now they are just a further symbol of Georgia’s futility against Florida. Why not save that for a better year in a game that, you know, mattered?

Moreover what’s with the ridiculous celebration on a TD play that drew Georgia within 4 points at 14-10 early in the second quarter? There was still plenty of game to play, and the Dawgs weren’t even winning. About the celebration Ryan Stamper said "That's a bunch of fake juice, coaches trying to get their players going because it was a pretty close game" And he was exactly right, it looked and felt fake. Not to mention embarrassing.

This was simply an "in-between" year for Georgia, and all good programs have them. There will be years when we are down and Georgia is up, but I’m starting to wonder if our psychological edge is moving towards permanent.

Did You Believe…

…the Trojans were really the 5th best team in the nation? Or 4th, as the AP had them?

Credit to the BlogPoll that at least had them ranked 8th. We had them 11th here, but as resume rankers it wasn’t an estimation of their skill but our assessment of where they belonged based on their record. Also credit to the computer polls which had USC 9th and Oregon 6th. The machines were superior to the (heavily biased) humans here.

After giving up 36 points to Oregon State the week before, the USC defense folded and surrendered 47 points and 613 yards to the Ducks. If I had heard Herbstreit say that Oregon was “doing this against a USC defense” one more time I would have vomited”

I’m not sure where I’ll rank them this week, but there are nothing special among two loss teams at this point.

Oregon is going to be an interesting case for pollsters. The Ducks dominated USC, but lost to Boise State in a game Oregon had only 152 total yards and 6 first downs.

In other words, one would be hard pressed to rank Oregon ahead of Boise State. My guess is, based largely on the “reputation” of USC, many pollsters do it nonetheless, and rank the Ducks ahead of the Broncos. I won't.