To: UGA Athletic Association
From: UF Athletic Association
RE: 140 Black Helmets
Please remit the above to the UF Athletic Association as legal spoils of battle. We expect them in the new, virtually unused condition they were left in.
Thanks for stopping by.
Predictions for the weekend:
1. Texas beats OSU, with its defense.
2. Oregon beats USC – Matt Barkley finally looks like a freshman in Autzen Stadium (the loudest stadium west of the Swamp).
3. South Carolina, with a big game from Ashlon Jeffreys, beats Tennessee in Knoxville. Kiffin complains that the refs should have checked Jeffreys eligibility after he worked at a gas station owned by a South Carolina booster this summer.
4. Lay the points. That is all I am saying about it.
5. Florida State will get to .500. The roller coaster is up this week. Favorite Bowden rumor of the week – That he was getting bought out of his FSU contract (for 4.5 million) and going to coach at UAB next year. Why would UAB want to do that?
6. Mike Leach will coach the game against Kansas Saturday dressed as a pirate. Mark Mangini will try to eat him.
7. Jimmy Clausen will jump to the top of the Heisman race after a huge day against Wash. St.
One of the most confounding NCAA stats this year is Florida’s current standing in Scoring Offense. Here are the top 10 scoring teams in the nation –
1 Texas 41.86
2 Cincinnati 40.71
3 Boise St. 40.43
3 Houston 40.43
5 Texas Tech 40
6 Oklahoma St. 37
7 Fresno St. 36.14
8 Texas A&M 35.86
9 Florida 35.29
10 3 Tied at 35.14
The Gators simply haven’t looked like a top scoring offense, especially lately.
The common explanation for this seems to be the lack of quality opponents we have played, especially in regard to the first 2 games where we scored 118 of our total points.
That argument doesn’t hold up, especially in light of what this statistic is - a comparative statistic.
First of all scoring overall is way down this year for the top teams. Last year Oklahoma averaged 51.14 points per game as the top scoring offense. Number 1 Texas this year is nearly 10 points below that number.
Florida is no exception. Last year we averaged 43.64 ppg, so our current output looks slim.
Secondly, while some of our opponents are less than stellar, which team above us in Scoring Offense is not the same? Texas scored 59 against Louisiana Monroe, 41 against Wyoming, and 64 against UTEP. Strip out those teams and Texas is averaging 32.25 ppg. With the exception of defensively 2nd ranked Oklahoma (against whom they scored 16), Texas has not faced a defense higher than 57th nationally, with 3 defenses worse than 90th (Colorado, La-Monroe, UTEP).
We are the 9th ranked Scoring Offense in the nation. It is a comparative statistic which is what it is.
First of all, Scully’s observations of our offensive woes are well taken.
I’m just here now to tell you it doesn’t matter. Or at least, it doesn’t matter much.
I did a piece preseason laying out the statistical characteristics of BCS champions. Based on that evidence, we are still in very good shape.
In examining past BCS Champions, I noted categories of stats that weren’t only unimportant, they were actually the least related to eventual BCS success. Those statistics were –
Passing Offense
Total Offense
Penalty Yards
Kick Returns
I’m not going to bother with kick returns, where we actually rank outstanding nationally at 8th with 27.25 yards per return. Likewise, we are having an unusually good year when it comes to penalty yards at 12th nationally and only 42.29 yards per game.
Neither of those stats is much related to BCS success anyway.
For the two offensive categories mentioned – Passing Offense and Total Offense – I have previously noted that they aren’t very important to eventual BCS success. In the case of Passing Offense, the average BCS champion has ranked 42.5 nationally at 237.2 yards per game. Of the 15 statistics I examined, Passing Offense ranked 13th in importance.
Right now the Gators are 80th in this category, at 198.7 yards per game. Not good, but better than some eventual champions, like Ohio State in 2002 that ranked 92nd in the country in passing offense with only 173.2 ypg. And last season’s champion Gators were ranked only 61st in the nation in passing yardage per game at 213.9. There is room for improvement, but no need to panic.
As for total offense, it ranks 9th in importance of 15 categories. This year’s Gators, due to their outstanding run offense (6th in the nation at 258.3 ypg) are 8th nationally, at 457 yards per game.
That’s right – our much maligned offense ranks 8th in the nation in yards per game.
What about the statistics that really matter to BCS champions?
To reiterate, the most important statistics (in ascending order of importance) are –
Passing Efficiency
Pass Efficiency Defense
Total Defense
Scoring Defense
Where would the current Florida team rank among BCS winners statistically in these categories at the present time?
Only the best team ever.
Here are the average rankings and stats for past champions -
Passing Efficiency 12.3 (150)
Pass Efficiency Defense 6.7 (95.33)
Total Defense 8 (281.6)
Scoring Defense 5.4 (13.9)
And Florida’s current stats in these categories –
Passing Efficiency 12th (156.07)
Pass Efficiency Defense 1st (86.83)
Total Defense 1st (229.6)
Scoring Defense 2nd (10.14)
(That last category is made all the worse by the two pick-sixes Tebow threw last game, which count against this stat. In reality our defense gave up 6 points Saturday.)
The only BCS Champions who are close to these rankings are the 2001 Miami team, who was 1st in Scoring and Pass Efficiency Defense, 6th in Total Defense, and 15th in Passing Efficiency, and the 2003 LSU team, which was 1st in Scoring and Total Defense, 2nd in Pass Efficiency Defense, and 11th in Passing Efficiency. Yet in both cases their highly ranked Total Defense was worse than Florida currently – 270.9 yards per game for Miami and 252 ypg for LSU, to 229.6 for UF right now.
Now I wish our offense was more effective and I agree with Scully’s points. I also wish our games could be a bit more … relaxing. Finally I realize that the way we are playing gives us little margin for error.
But if it is going to get done this year, like 2006 it is going to have to be the defense that gets it done. (In many ways, like last year too).
This is a championship defense. If they bring it home, it’s time Charlie Strong and his boys get their due recognition.
Before I get to my draft BlogPoll ballot, I want to say this;
USC ranked 5th in the BCS, and 4th in the Harris/AP Polls, is total bullshit.
I don’t usually resort to foul language, but there is no valid explanation for the Trojans that high. Consider –
USC’s “marquee” win – at Ohio State – was less impressive at 18-15 than what 3-5 Purdue eventually did to the Buckeyes.
USC moves up this week after escaping at home against Oregon State 42-36. The Beavers are currently 4-3.
Oregon State’s other two losses are to Arizona and … Cincinnati. The Bearcats beat the Beavers at Corvallis 28-18. Yet, undefeated Cincy is ranked 8th in the BCS, 3 spots behind USC. (That’s a Cincinnati team that moved down 3 slots after destroying Louisville 41-10.)
Oregon State averages 400 yards a game and 29.9 points. Against the supposedly stout USC defense they gained 482 yards and 36 points. At USC, that is. The loss was bad enough to move USC’s scoring defense from 4th to 15th nationally.
The computer polls, who aren’t rife with the bias of human voters, rank USC 9th, about where they ought to be. The humans, by placing USC 4th, are basically saying that there are zero consequences in losing a game. Moreover, in losing to a bad Washington team that is currently 3-5.
Here are the current BCS standings for teams 1 through 21. USC is ahead of 3 undefeated teams, and likewise ahead of 8 one-loss teams that have all arguably lost to a better team than Washington.
1 Florida 7-0
2 Alabama 8-0
3 Texas 7-0
4 Iowa 8-0
5 USC 6-1
6 TCU 7-0
7 Boise State 7-0
8 Cincinnati 7-0
9 LSU 6-1
10 Oregon 6-1
11 Georgia Tech 7-1
12 Penn State 7-1
13 Virginia Tech 5-2
14 Oklahoma State 6-1
15 Pittsburgh 7-1
16 Utah 6-1
17 Ohio State 6-2
18 Houston 6-1
19 Miami (FL) 5-2
20 Arizona 5-2
21 West Virginia 6-1
Finally USC, ranked 5th in the BCS, isn't even in first place currently in the Pac Ten. Next week's opponent Oregon, undefeated in conference play, is.
There. I don’t have to explain my vote that places the Trojans 11th when the BlogPoll comes out.
My ballot (Mumme Ballot is top 12) –
 | ||
| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Florida |  1 |
| 2 | Alabama |  1 |
| 3 | Cincinnati | 1 |
| 4 | Texas | 1 |
| 5 | TCU | 1 |
| 6 | Iowa | 3 |
| 7 | Boise State | |
| 8 | LSU | 3 |
| 9 | Oregon | 3 |
| 10 | Georgia Tech | 1 |
| 11 | Southern Cal | 1 |
| 12 | Penn State | 1 |
| 13 | Houston | 1 |
| 14 | Virginia Tech | 1 |
| 15 | Oklahoma State | 2 |
| 16 | Penn State | 3 |
| 17 | Pittsburgh | 5 |
| 18 | Miami (Florida) | 10 |
| 19 | West Virginia | 2 |
| 20 | Utah | 2 |
| 21 | Arizona | |
| 22 | South Carolina | |
| 23 | California | |
| 24 | Notre Dame | |
| 25 | Central Michigan | 1 |
| Last week's ballot | ||
Considering my last trip to Starkville was the Zook finale game in 2004, Saturday’s outcome wasn’t that bad at all.
Yes, that is a real (dead) Gator. If he had been a little bigger I might have been more impressed.
The near fracas that occurred pregame. And those cowbells…
Although our offense clearly has issues, I’m not as concerned overall regarding the big picture. The simple reason is that we might be witnessing the best Gator defense ever. I am planning a post later this week laying out the reasons why this looks like a championship Gator team.
I also had the pleasure of meeting fellow Gator blogger “BS” of The Gator Report on the trip, and I would point our readers to his site for excellent game analysis.
With each passing game it is becoming more and more obvious that Tim Tebow is pressing. He is a shadow of the player he was in 2007 and 2008. Don't talk to me about the concussion because he was playing the same way before that hit. He is just trying to do too much. Pressing is understandable with the loss of 2 wide receivers who are now starting in the NFL and the loss of 2 key offensive linemen, but something has to be corrected if this team expects to reach its ultimate goal.
Unfortunately the problem is compounded by the fact that the offensive is being coordinated by the inexperienced Steve Addazio, whose previously held the same position for a year at the offensive juggernaut Indiana. This is not to say that the offense hasn't had some success, because it has, nor I am saying that Addazio needs to be replaced because I don't think he does - remember last year when fans were calling for Mullen's head. Unfortunately, the offense is close to becoming a liability.
What I would do to fix the problem:
1. Tim is holding the ball way too long, which in turn is making the offensive line look much worse than it is actually playing. How else do you explain so many linemen grading out as champions - especially after the Arkansas game when Arkansas had 6 sacks? Sure there have been some breakdowns, but more often than not Tim's decision making has been slow if the first option is covered. Tim's first interception was an example of bad decision-making. To fix this problem, plays can be called that have a predetermined destination after the pre-snap read. Against MSU, the defensive backs were playing close to 10 yards off the receivers before the snap. What's wrong with throwing the ball quickly to Thompson or Cooper and letting them pick up an easy 5 yards?
2. Stop coming to the line, faking a snap count and then looking over to the sideline. I have to admit that I hate this part of our offense. Football is about reacting and right now it seems like the offense is thinking too much. Another example of over-thinking is the use of trick plays in the red zone. Typically you don't see more than one reverse or trick play in the red zone a season, this year we have both a reverse (to James) and a reverse pass (by Cooper). Just let our playmakers play.
3. Move Carl Johnson back to guard. If the purpose of this offense is to run up the middle, move Johnson back to the position that he dominated at last year - LG. Moving Johnson to LG would mean Mike Pouncey could go back to RG. Now we have our 3 best OL lining up at the guards and center. This would also help the pass game too, because all too often (the 2nd interception against MSU comes to mind) the pressure has come up the middle on passing plays. I understand that the question then becomes, who plays LT if Johnson moves to LG now that Patchan is hurt? But I am sure that the staff can figure this part of the equation out. From what I am hearing Xavier Nixon has really been coming on in practice, so why not give him a shot?
4. Remove Brandon James from the "Percy" position. While I love Brandon James in the return game, I am never happy when he is in the game when we have the ball. Percy had about 4 inches and 30lbs on James and James isn't effective in that position, nor is he a threat. I would move Demps into the "Percy" role - 5-10 runs, 5-10 catches. While Demps isn't as big as Percy was his second or third year, he is definitely a threat to score every time he touches the ball - just like Percy. This might also be what the team needs to get the "Jet Sweep" going again this year.
5. Stop sending Rainey up the middle. With Demps out against MSU, Rainey had one of his better games and most of his big runs were outside the tackles. Everyone has different running styles and Rainey excels off tackle and on sweeps. Rainey is not big enough for the rigors of running between the center and guard (like Moody), nor does he hit the hole quick enough (like Demps). Maybe it is best explained by saying that when Rainey runs, he glides, as opposed to Demps who hits the hole like he is coming out of the starting blocks.
6. When it is 3rd and short let someone else carry the load. The legend of Tim Tebow is becoming a burden to the legend himself. We have a running back in Moody that, if given the chance, can move the pile. Rather than heaping the burden of converting every short yardage play on Tebow, maybe it would do him some good, and in turn the team some good, to see someone else make a big short-yardage play. On the first 3rd and short against Georgia, I would line up with Tebow under center and Moody at tailback and give Moody the ball. If we did this, Gary Danielson might have to preform CPR on Verne Lundquist, so it could be a win-win.
I’m heading to Starkville for the game this weekend on a “Boy’s” trip.
My last visit to Mississippi State saw a bitter loss that was eventually made better by being the instigating factor in the hiring of Urban Meyer.
Starkville – no place more appropriately named.
There is much about this game that worries me. As defending champs we get everyone’s “A” game, and with our former offensive coordinator as MSU’s new head coach we are going to have their entire focus. I wonder if the same can be said for us.
Plus ESPN has seen fit to televise this game as their night offering. I imagine the Bulldogs will be extra motivated.
Cowbells – we need more cowbells.
Before I show my work, how about me almost being right on Notre Dame over USC? I really didn't believe it when I made the pick, but it turned out closer than I thought it could.
The BlogPoll here is my first draft, and your comments are solicited. My Mumme Ballot is the same top 12 teams.
| ||
| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | |
| 2 | Florida | |
| 3 | Iowa | 1 |
| 4 | Cincinnati | 1 |
| 5 | Texas | 2 |
| 6 | TCU | 3 |
| 7 | Boise State | 1 |
| 8 | Miami (Florida) | 2 |
| 9 | Georgia Tech | 6 |
| 10 | Southern Cal | 6 |
| 11 | LSU | |
| 12 | Oregon | 1 |
| 13 | Penn State | 1 |
| 14 | Houston | 5 |
| 15 | South Florida | 9 |
| 16 | Oklahoma State | 4 |
| 17 | Utah | |
| 18 | Texas Tech | |
| 19 | Virginia Tech | 16 |
| 20 | Nebraska | 8 |
| 21 | West Virginia | |
| 22 | Pittsburgh | |
| 23 | Brigham Young | |
| 24 | Central Michigan | 1 |
| 25 | Wisconsin | 1 |
| Last week's ballot | ||
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In the latest BlogPoll commentary I get called out for placing 4-1 USC 16th on my ballot, while the poll at large has the Trojan’s 6th.
What in the hell has USC done to get them to 6th in the polls? It is the other voters that ought to be justifying their votes.
The Trojans have won the following games –
San Jose State 56-3
At Ohio State 18-15
Washington State 27-6
At California 30-3
And lost
At Washington 16-13
Let’s take the wins in order.
San Jose State - is 1-4, with its sole win over Cal Poly. Color me unimpressed.
Ohio State – OSU is obviously the Trojan’s marquee win thus far. The Buckeyes are 5-1 overall, but aren’t exactly national powerhouses on offense, where they rank 46th overall at 29.7 ppg. Still, a pretty nice win.
Washington State – probably the most inept team in FBS football right now, the Cougars are 1-5 with their sole win in overtime against SMU.
California – if ever there was an overrated team this year, Cal is it. Presently 3-2, with more losses to come.
The only impressive win is Ohio State.
Then there is the loss to Washington. The Huskies are currently 3-3, having defeated Idaho and Arizona besides the Trojans (more on these teams in a second). USC managed only 13 points against Washington.
Now if losing to Washington isn’t a serious offense in your eyes, then where are Idaho and Arizona on your ballot? What’s that you say? You didn’t know that, like USC, 5-1 Idaho’s sole loss is to Washington? Or that 2 loss Arizona (whose other loss is to undefeated Iowa) outgained Washington by 200 plus yards before losing late?
Well, do the stats support a 6th ranked USC?
Scoring Offense – 53rd nationally at 28.8 points per game.
Scoring Defense – 4th nationally at 8.6 ppg
Strength of Schedule – 67th nationally
USC, having played a group of teams with an overall losing record, can manage no better than the 53rd offense in the nation. And while that defense looks good, their opponents have been generally lousy.
People get on Florida for playing an easy schedule, but right now UF is tied for 9th in the nation having played teams with a 13-5 record.
As for USC’s offense, who are some of the teams that rank better on a national basis? Well (by rank) –
12 South Fla.
18 Pittsburgh
19 Central Mich.
22 La.-Monroe
27 Notre Dame
29 Tennessee
30 Duke
31 Rutgers
34 Navy
35 Northern Ill.
36 Toledo
37 Wisconsin
38 Penn St.
40 Southern Miss.
41 Baylor
44 Florida St.
46 Air Force
48 Arkansas St.
50 Wake Forest
(Yes, that says Tennessee there - 24 spots ahead of USC.)
And although that defense looks really nice, guess who is right behind them at 5th? That would be South Florida.
The reason I mention South Florida – undefeated South Florida, of 12th ranked offense and 5th ranked defense – is the same blog entry that banged me for putting USC 16th hit me for putting USF 6th.
I’m not saying USC shouldn’t be ranked – I have them where they belong. But to have them 6th – ahead of unbeaten Iowa at 9th, really isn’t justifiable. Moreover there are a host of one-loss teams that have fallen against far better opponents than Washington. In this group I would include –
LSU
Miami
Penn State
Oregon
Nebraska
Georgia Tech
And even Notre Dame.
Yes Notre Dame – who actually BEAT Washington.
They could/should all be ranked ahead of the Trojans.
The only justification I can see for ranking the Trojans 6th is that they won a single good game. Is that really enough to justifying them being in the hunt for a national title at this point in time, ahead of so many others clearly deserving?
Finally, I don’t make “predictive” polling decisions, or who I think *might* be better. But I’m going to go out on a limb here –
The Trojans lose to Notre Dame this weekend.
Bobcats better than Dawgs between the checkerboards
The Georgia debacle at Neyland this past weekend is being thoroughly examined by Bulldog bloggers and fans everywhere.
I hadn’t realized the depth of the ugliness until I did a comparison of the Bulldog’s efforts to those of the Ohio Bobcat’s two weeks earlier, also at Tennessee.
The Bobcat’s lost to the Vols by a score of 34-23. So Ohio both scored more than Georgia’s 19 points, and held Tennessee to 11 fewer points (34 versus 45).
It gets worse.
Offensively against Tennessee, Ohio had more first downs than Georgia (15 to 13), 99 more total yards (340 to 241), and 167 more yards passing (319 to 152).
Against Georgia’s defense, Tennessee was far more successful than they were against the defense of the Bobcats. The Vols had 73 more total yards against the Dawgs (472 to 399) and 88 more passing yards (310 to 222). And while the Vols did rush for more yards against Ohio than Georgia, it was only a minimal amount – 177 against the Bobcats, versus 162 against the Dawgs. On a per rushing attempt basis, Tennessee gained 4.5 per attempt against Ohio, and 4.4 per attempt against Georgia.
I know it is a rebuilding year for Georgia, but sheesh.
Below are my draft BlogPoll, and my Mumme Poll entry.
First the BlogPoll. As always your suggestions are solicited, with the final due Wednesday morning.
| ||
| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | |
| 2 | Florida | 5 |
| 3 | Virginia Tech | 9 |
| 4 | Iowa | |
| 5 | Cincinnati | |
| 6 | South Florida | |
| 7 | Texas | 4 |
| 8 | Boise State | 2 |
| 9 | TCU | 1 |
| 10 | Miami (Florida) | 3 |
| 11 | LSU | 8 |
| 12 | Nebraska | |
| 13 | Oregon | 2 |
| 14 | Penn State | |
| 15 | Georgia Tech | 1 |
| 16 | Southern Cal | 4 |
| 17 | Ohio State | 4 |
| 18 | South Carolina | 7 |
| 19 | Houston | |
| 20 | Oklahoma State | |
| 21 | Kansas | 3 |
| 22 | Notre Dame | 1 |
| 23 | Auburn | 21 |
| 24 | Wisconsin | 15 |
| 25 | Central Michigan | |
| Last week's ballot | ||
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