Big 12 Illusions

Why the sports media will be calling the Big 12 the nation’s best conference by early October – and why you shouldn’t buy it.

Last year we noted that the Big 12 gamed its schedule in a way that gave it an advantage in the national rankings to conference teams.

The gist of the game was this – the Big 12 front-loaded their schedule with non-conference teams that created the illusion of a conference much stronger than it actually was, especially when compared to other conferences. How this works is pretty simple – if members of a conference can avoid playing each other as long as possible (while feasting on mostly inferior talent) the conference at-large avoids the losses that inevitably result from conference play.

Last year for example, five Big 12 teams were undefeated by week 5, a situation that was (and would be) nearly impossible in any other major conference. As a result half the conference was ranked in the top 22 by the fifth week creating a sort of poll inertia that benefited the conference later in the season.

The other major conferences don’t have the same advantage of a 5 week pre-conference hiatus that benefits the Big 12. Take the SEC for example. By week 5 of the upcoming season every SEC team will have played at least 2, and as many as 3, conference games. By the virtue of simple mathematic attrition borne of conference play, many SEC teams will have one or more losses by week 5, making it virtually impossible for five teams to be undefeated.

Georgia, for instance, will have played South Carolina, Arkansas and LSU by the 5th week of the season. If Georgia were to be undefeated by that point, by necessity the other 3 other SEC teams will not be, meaning Georgia alone will have given losses to one-fourth the conference by week 5. (As an aside, UGA’s 2 other games that first 5 weeks are Oklahoma State and Arizona State – is there a harder opening schedule than that?)

Now let’s look at those opening 5 weeks for the Big 12. Contrary to last season there actually are a few tough non-conference games in the first 5 weeks, but the schedule still sets up very nicely for the conference. (For some reason this year there is also a single conference game before week 5 between Texas and Texas Tech, but it doesn’t change the calculations much).

According to the excellent poll aggregation work being done over at LSUFootball.net, the following should be close to the rankings for the top Big 12 teams -

2. Texas
3. Oklahoma
6. Oklahoma State
22. Kansas
24. Nebraska

We will used the same poll rankings to assume, for our purposes here, who wins between teams in the first 5 weeks. Here are the early conference schedules and predictions -

Texas – Louisiana Monroe, at Wyoming, Texas Tech, UTEP

Texas should begin 4-0, easy.

Oklahoma – BYU, Idaho State, Tulsa, at Miami

Credit the Sooners with the game at Miami, but 4-0 looks a likely start with UM ranked 29th.

Oklahoma State – Georgia, Houston, Rice, Grambling

The Dawgs won’t be a pushover by any means, but the Cowboys get them at home in the post Stafford-Moreno era, and UGA is ranked 15th to Oklahoma State’s 6th. 4-0 is probably the result.

Kansas – Northern Colorado, at UTEP, Duke, Southern Miss

Kansas should go 4-0.

Nebraska – FAU, Arkansas State, at Virginia Tech, Louisiana-Lafayette

I don’t see the Cornhuskers winning at Blacksburg, but 3-1 is a given.

These other Big 12 teams will probably also start strong due to schedule –

Texas Tech – North Dakota, Rice, at Texas, at Houston, New Mexico

4-1 is almost a given.

Kansas State – Umass, at Louisiana-Lafayette, at UCLA, Tennessee Tech

3-1 at least

Texas A&M – New Mexico, Utah State, UAB, at Arkansas

Neither Arkansas or A&M is ranked, so hard to call who might win. We will say 3-1 to be conservative.


Missouri – at Illinois, Bowling Green, Furman, at Nevada

We’ll give 31st ranked Illinois at home the win over unranked Missouri, so look for 3-1.

We could easily have a situation that, after week 5, the records of the Big 12 teams should be –

Texas 4-0
Oklahoma 4-0
Oklahoma State 4-0
Kansas 4-0
Texas Tech 4-1
Nebraska 3-1
Kansas State 3-1
Texas A&M 3-1
Missouri 3-1
Kansas State 3-1
Colorado 3-1
Iowa State 3-1
Baylor 2-2

In fact, I’d be surprised if it was not so. Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas and Nebraska will be top 25 ranked (after all the Sooners will “only” have lost to top ranked Virginia Tech). Texas Tech may also be ranked.

Pollsters, being the generally a lazy lot they are, will have their eyes are drawn to records that end in zero. I’m predicting six ranked Big 12 teams by the end of week 5.

All of this will have occurred essentially without the Big 12 having to face competition within their own conference. By comparison, on October 3rd, most ACC and Big Ten teams will have played 2 conference games, the SEC 2 to 3 conference games, and the Pac Ten 3 conference games. As a result those conferences won’t – in fact they can’t - have the same gaudy win-loss records the Big 12 will surely boast.

The sports media discussion regarding the Big 12 at this point will be predictable – “Look at how strong the conference is! 4 undefeated teams with 6 (or half the conference!) ranked in the top 25!” Nebraska’s loss at Blacksburg will be easily explained away – “No one wins at Va Tech”, and the Red Raiders will “only” have lost to highly ranked Texas at Texas. Add in what is sure to be some high scoring routs, Big 12 offenses ranked near the top of statistical categories, and the media love affair will be on.

None of this is to say that certain Big 12 teams, especially Texas and Oklahoma, AREN’T deserving of all the attention and media focus they are sure to gather, as I think both will be top competitors in 2009. Texas in particular looks ready to contend for a BCS title.

But the “best conference ever” theme that we will sure to be hearing by that first week in October shouldn’t resonate with discriminating college sport enthusiasts, insufferable though it might be.

2009 Preseason Poll

Using the same methodology we did last year, the following is our preseason poll -


1 Florida
2 Southern Cal
3 Texas
4 Alabama
5 Georgia
6 Ohio State
7 LSU
8 Florida State
9 Oklahoma
10 Miami-FL
11 Clemson
12 Michigan State
13 Notre Dame
14 North Carolina
15 Tennessee
16 Nebraska
17 South Carolina
18 TCU
19 Texas Tech
20 Utah
21 Michigan
22 West Virginia
23 Penn State
24 Virginia Tech
25 California

(And before you freak out, read my prior post about the relatively strong results of last year's efforts).

Interestingly our methodology (now 3 years old) comes up with Florida as number 1 which will likely match most polling consensus. I also feel pretty comfortable with USC at 2 (despite their defensive losses), and Texas at 3.

Obviously having 3 SEC teams in slots 4, 5 and 7 leads to a nearly impossible situation – someone is going to knock someone out. And ‘Bama and Georgia’s talent losses give me pause.

I’m also not entirely comfortable with FSU and Miami, who often end up high in my rankings (due to their supposedly successful recruiting), but my guess is at least one of them ends up in the top 20.

Michigan State is interesting at 12, and I don’t know enough to say “yea” or “nea” there. Notre Dame, with their easy schedule, will probably end up in the top 20 with a BCS bowl game (which they will lose).

North Carolina comes in at 14, and I see a breakthrough year for them.

As for the rest, who knows? But then again if we have seen anything in virtually all of these polls about 40% of the top 25 preseason aren’t there at the end.

I plan on using this for my initial BlogPoll vote pending possible methodology modifications.

Recruiting Based Ranking – How It Held Up

We based my preseason BlogPoll in 2008 entirely on a statistical analysis I did employing recruiting rankings tweaked for 2007 seasonal performance.

We took some ribbing from BlogPoll maestro Brian at MGoBlog for our methods, which was then defended by Henry as relatively accurate, especially when compared to the BlogPoll itself for 2007.

So how did my tweaked method hold up last year, at least as compared to the preseason BlogPoll when using the final Coaches’ Poll as a success measure?

First I knew certain teams in our method weren’t likely to hold up, or even seemed absurd, such as Michigan at 8th, Miami at 15th or (especially) Notre Dame at 16th. However FSU, over ranked at 10th in my poll, did end the season ranked 23rd, and was nowhere to be found in the BlogPoll.

Here were our 2008 preseason rankings –

1 Southern Cal 4.856
2 LSU 4.555
3 Ohio State 4.519
4 Florida 4.440
5 Georgia 4.439
6 Texas 4.404
7 Oklahoma 4.376
8 Michigan 4.227
9 Tennessee 4.067
10 Florida State 4.046
11 Auburn 3.980
12 Clemson 3.972
13 Alabama 3.948
14 Penn State 3.897
15 Miami-FL 3.847
16 Notre Dame 3.785
17 Virginia Tech 3.763
18 California 3.721
19 Oregon 3.717
20 UCLA 3.717
21 Missouri 3.695
22 Kansas 3.683
23 Arizona State 3.679
24 South Carolina 3.660
25 Nebraska 3.639


And here was the 2008 preseason BlogPoll –

1 Georgia (24)
2 Ohio State (17)
3 Southern Cal (15)
4 Oklahoma (6)
5 Florida (14)
6 Missouri
7 LSU (2)
8 Clemson
9 West Virginia
10 Auburn
11 Texas
12 Texas Tech
13 Wisconsin
14 Virginia Tech
15 Kansas
16 Arizona State
17 Tennessee
18 Oregon
19 South Florida
20 Brigham Young
21 Penn State
22 Illinois
23 Wake Forest
24 Alabama
25 Utah

By final tally we got 13 of the eventual top 25 correct per the Coaches’ Poll. The BlogPoll did one better with 14 correct.

But our method was even better for the top 10 than the BlogPoll’s collective wisdom. Only 3 of my top 10 teams ended up unranked at all (LSU, Michigan and Tennessee) while 4 of the BlogPoll teams were unranked by season end (LSU, Clemson, West Virginia and Auburn).

Moreover fully half (5 of 10) of our top 10 teams were final top ten teams (USC, Florida, Georgia, Texas and Oklahoma) while the BlogPoll got 4 right in this category (Georgia, USC, Oklahoma and Florida).

Our initial poll versus the BlogPoll on several notables is below -

We were about the same as the BlogPoll on Florida and USC. However our method found far more strength in eventual number 3 Texas than the BlogPoll, and was more accurate in forecasting 2008 “surprises” Alabama and Penn State. Our method, being relatively unbiased, also missed the groupthink that overrated Georgia and Missouri.

So two years after implementing a recruiting based preseason polling method we can say that it is at least as good, if not better, than the traditional preseason polling methods. When it came to forecasting the top ten last year it was better.

We will use it again. Our preseason top 25 tomorrow.

All Hail Tim Teblog

Good friend of the blog, Dan Shanoff has started a new blog dedicated to Tim Tebow. Please bookmark it.

Now!

There's More Where This Came From

Tennessee's last visit to The Swamp: UF 59 - UT 20

See you on September 19th!

Why Meyer won't (probably) ever go to Notre Dame

Nearly 2 years ago I wrote a piece entitled “The Increasing Irrelevance of Notre Dame”.

I really had no idea at the time how accurate my assessment was, especially the “increasing” part.

In the two full seasons since I penned that post the Irish have fought their way to a 10-15 record, or .400. That recent history of futility puts them tied for 86th place among the NCAA’s 119 FBS teams, sandwiched by record between perennial homecoming favorites Louisiana Monroe and Louisiana-Lafayette (of 10-14 and 9-15 records respectively).

It now appears irrelevance has arrived.

And we are supposed to believe Urban Meyer might be headed there?

My article of two years ago was spurred by the assertion of Stewart Mandel that Notre Dame was an “elite” program, while Georgia was not. I submit that whether a program is elite or not contains both objective and subjective elements. As far as the objective ones go Notre Dame, ranked 41st by win percentage over the last decade, is not elite.

Subjectively our opinions are formed by life experience, and certainly when I was growing up Notre Dame was elite, and I can easily recall Notre Dame’s “national” championship of 1988. Perhaps this is the reason so many of today’s sports personalities, stuck in some sort of time warp, continue to consider the Irish among college football’s elite. Take the following sports commentators and compare Notre Dame’s standing during their formative (first 25) years –

Beano Cook – Born 1931. From 1931 to 1955 Notre Dame was number 1 team in nation with a 182-40-15 record.

Lou Holtz – Born 1937. From 1937 Notre Dame was 2nd team in nation (to Oklahoma) with a 174-58-11 record.

It’s no wonder they hold Notre Dame in high regard (Holtz coaching there aside).

Or, take the following 2 –

Mark May – Born 1959. During May’s first 25 years the Irish were 12th nationally with a 185-78-6 record.

Kirk Herbstreit – Born 1969. During Herbie’s formative years the Irish were 8th with a 215-71-4 record.

Complementary of Notre Dame, no doubt, but not anywhere like the first two.

Now consider young Joe Prospect. Joe is a high school standout who can play anywhere he wants and has definite NFL aspirations. He is just 18 years old having been born in 1991.

During Joe’s life the 10 most successful college teams by winning percentages are -

1 Florida 0.788
2 Ohio State 0.782
3 Florida State 0.782
4 Nebraska 0.764
5 Miami-Florida 0.753
6 Tennessee 0.744
7 Boise State 0.742
8 Texas 0.740
9 Michigan 0.727
10 Georgia 0.717

Notre Dame is 22nd, between West Virginia and Oregon.

Of course this considers that Joe was cognizant of football just after he was born. In the last decade, since Joe was 8, it looks like this –

1 Boise State 0.844
2 Texas 0.822
3 Oklahoma 0.820
4 Southern Cal 0.780
5 Ohio State 0.770
6 Virginia Tech 0.769
7 Georgia 0.766
8 Florida 0.750
9 Texas Christian 0.740
10 Miami-Florida 0.736

And the Irish find themselves 41st on this list, with a narrowly winning percentage of 0.565.

The last time Notre Dame won a “national title” was 3 years before Joe was born.

Quick – Who won the national title 3 years before you were born?

I’ll wait.

(I had to look it up – for me it was Texas).

To Joe, Notre Dame wins less often than other big school programs like (accounting for the last 10 years) Arkansas, Maryland, Clemson, South Florida, and Boston College. Large schools with decent programs all, and objectively more successful than the Irish over the past decade, but with nowhere near the deluded veneration.

Notre Dame simply isn’t relevant to Joe Prospect, and Urban Meyer knows this. Now the Irish are very relevant to Meyer, but that isn’t going to sell the talent needed to get them out of the funk they seem destined to slide further into. Notre Dame simply isn’t even a lateral move for Meyer at this point, it is a move downwards.

All this doesn’t mean it can’t happen. As the current high level of interest in all things Notre Dame can attest to, delusion is alive and well. And people make stupid mistakes all the time.

It’s just, for me, that I have yet to hear any compelling evidence why it should happen.

UPDATE (7/22/09): Just to be clear I am using the term "irrelevant" here as it pertains to Notre Dame's impact on the BCS Championship picture, or their general football competitiveness. Notre Dame has a large fanbase and will, for the foreseeable future, continue to sell football tickets and merchandise. They have a lucrative TV contract and likely attract sizable donations (though the information is non-public). They are just irrelevant to the outcome of the football season.

Notre Dame, Tired Rumors, and Overstaying

The off-season college football world has been abuzz with the fictitious news that Urban Meyer might/will leave Florida for Notre Dame after the upcoming season, created in large part by one Paul Finebaum.

The rumor was apparently “started” (if you can call it that) by Steve Spurrier, elaborated on by Finebaum, and has become a subject of hot conversation among the chattering sports media in the non-news period between recruiting and the start of the season.

Gregg Doyel of CBSSports.com did an admirable job of dismissing the nonsense that is Finebaum in his article of July 19th. Likewise Doyel effectively questions the motivations of Spurrier in the same article (I tend to be more forgiving of Spurrier than Doyel as it seems, to me at least, that Spurrier was defending Shane Matthews regarding some comments Meyer made regarding Matthew’s loyalty).

Like most observers I don’t believe Meyer has any intention of taking the Notre Dame position, “dream job” or not. For one Meyer could have already had it. Most importantly, however, Meyer and honest minded observers know that Notre Dame is a has-been in the college football world, at least in respect to real competitiveness. Sure they are likely to notch some 8 or 9 win seasons in the near future. With their tepid schedule the real surprise has been their failure to do it more recently. And sure, they are going to continue to draw fan interest for some time due to their unique position. But real competitiveness? No way. One just needs to look at their bowl record in their past 10 appearances (1-9 with the sole win being over Hawaii) to see how the Irish match up on a national stage.

No, were I truly worried about Meyer going somewhere in the near future South Bend wouldn’t even register on my radar. Were I thus worried (and I’m not) I would look to the potential retirement of Jim Tressel as my greatest concern. In the Buckeyes you have Meyer’s home state, a fertile recruiting area, and national power and prominence.

But I’m not worried, and the reason is I don’t really think it matters that much.

Yeah, I said that.

Before exploring further, let me say that I am and will always be grateful to Urban Meyer for 2006 and 2008, and hopefully a couple more golden Gator years. And coaching does matter (see Ron Zook).

But there are and will always be plenty of talented young coaches that, given the right circumstances (money, top facilities and recruiting access) will be willing to coach the Florida Gators. Florida can match or exceed the money anyone can offer a coach, and our newest facilities are second-to-none. However the greatest strength of Florida –and in this case I mean the entire state – is the rich recruiting talent available.

Consider – since 1983, a couple of years after the population of the state really began to explode, the “big three” of Florida have won 11 “national” titles. That represents 44% of the 25 total titles during the period from a single state. What’s more a team from the state has nearly always been competitive at the national level during that time, with 6 of the putative national title games being lost by a team from Florida (3 by Miami, 2 by FSU, 1 by Florida). That marks 17 of the past 25 “national title” games that have featured a team from Florida, a record not remotely approached by any other state.

Not to mention the recent competitiveness of teams like Central and South Florida, the state is the virtual definition of modern college success.

Underlying the strength of the talent in the state, the 11 state of Florida national titles in the past quarter century have been won by 7 different coaches (4 at Miami, 2 at Florida, and old Bobby in Tallahassee). Only Bowden and Meyer can claim more than one.

In my opinion the worst situation you can have is a coach well past his prime who, based on gratitude of his past success, keeps coaching beyond the point where everyone knows it is time to move on.

My nightmare as a Gator fan is that Urban Meyer becomes Bobby Bowden.

I mean, far be it from me to complain about the plight of our rivals just to the north, but won’t some adult step up in Tallahassee and realize that spending your off season vehemently defending against the potential loss of PAST victories isn’t healthy for your program? There is no surer sign that the Florida State program is all about Bobby Bowden than the current situation. (And keep it up, I say!)

One of the most detrimental things that could happen to Florida is if the program became all about an individual. We came perilously close to exactly that situation in Spurrier who, had he stayed as many fans wanted (or even worse, had he returned) would never have brought us Urban Meyer. In retrospect we were fortunate Steve chose to leave when he did. In FSU’s case it is even worse – it is all about an individual who refuses to leave. I hope we are never anywhere near that situation.

The ideal coaching tenure is about 10 to 15 years, which I imagine is near the human limit for anyone with one program. The tireless recruiting and the ever increasing demands of fans and alumni must wear down even the most resilient coach. (Not coincidently these are the exact things that bring and motivate success.) They were exactly the reason the ever honest Spurrier gave for moving on.

So as Urban begins his 5th campaign at Florida I plan on enjoying the moment, and hoping I get to see anywhere from 2 to 3 times as many more seasons with Meyer at the helm. I also hope for much more success which, if accomplished, will have the effect of ever higher pressure on our coach. And, when he feels like it is no longer worth it, I hope he moves on to other success (excepting, of course, the SEC East).

It will be for the good of the program, and if Florida keeps paying attention to what matters, the Gators will be fine.

Clip of the day

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JVSqdxYHs6Q

Getting closer

54 days until the season opener against Charleston Southern

The Sporting News ranks the Top 5 coaches.