Monday, January 19, 2009

CFB Weekly, season finale

Aaron Rennie, our good friend with CFB Weekly podcast had me on again to talk about the Gators winning the BCS Championship.

P.S. DON'T MISS the final segment of the show where Aaron asks me who would win a hypothetical match-up between the 2006 Gators and the 2008 Gators. My answer might surprise you.

Friday, January 16, 2009

Florida Is The Best

Stewart Mandel has given the Gators plenty of praise in his recent columns, but I couldn’t help but note this gem under the “Story Highlights” section of his article about the Gators winning the BCS

The Florida program is quickly starting to resemble Pete Carroll's Trojans

To which I say –

Pete Carroll wishes his program resembled ours.

I cast a somewhat controversial vote for Utah as number 1 in my BlogPoll ballot, but I stated then – and restate here – Florida is the best college football team right now, bar none. Florida also has the best program.

Everyone knows Florida has won two of the last 3 BCS titles. What isn’t as widely recognized is the level of competition Florida had to face in accomplishing that task.

Over the past three years the Gators have posted a record of 35-6 on route to their 2 SEC and BCS titles. No team has faced a harder schedule during that time. Florida has played teams since 2006 with a cumulative record of 280 wins and 155 losses, or a winning percentage of 64.37%.

In fact, no other team even comes close.

The top ten toughest schedules for the past 3 years are (with winning percentage) –

1 Florida 64.37%
2 Georgia 58.94%
3 Oklahoma 58.81%
4 Arkansas 58.56%
5 Virginia Tech 58.33%
6 Oklahoma St. 58.25%
7 Kentucky 58.21%
8 SMU 58.16%
9 Oregon St. 57.91%
10 Michigan 57.84%

Florida faced teams with a winning percentage 5.43% better than the team with the second toughest schedule Georgia. But win-losses, the Gators played teams that won 46 more games, and lost 8 fewer, than the second place Bulldogs.

And what of those Trojan’s that the ever praiseful Mr. Mandel thinks that Meyer’s Gators are beginning to resemble?

Well they did lose one less game than Florida in the past three years, but they also won one less to, for a 34-5 overall record. In doing so they played teams with a cumulative record of 195-208, or a winning percentage of 48.39%. Or, rather, a losing percentage of 51.61%. This record of tepid achievement places them 79th of the NCAA’s 119 teams.

In other words Florida played teams with a nearly 16% better winning record than USC, or teams with a cumulative 85 more wins over only a 3 year period. The same teams Florida played also had 53 less losses.

Even more interestingly, Florida has faced the toughest schedule in the SEC while over the past 3 years, while USC has faced the softest in their conference. By conference –















Not only have the teams with the 4 toughest schedules in the SEC played a tougher slate than the top Pac Ten team in Oregon State, EVERY SEC team has played a harder schedule than Southern Cal by a significant margin. In fact every SEC team played a harder or as hard schedule over the last three years than the bottom 4 Pac Ten teams.

It’s harder to be Vanderbilt than it is to be USC.


To sum:

2006-2008

Florida

Record: 35-6
Opponents Records: 280-155 (64.37%)
Opponents Records Rank: 1st in NCAA
2 Conference Titles
2 BCS Titles

USC

Record: 34-5
Opponents Records: 195-208 (48.39%)
Opponents Records Rank: 79th in NCAA
3 Conference Titles
No BCS Titles

I know which program I’d rather resemble.

Thursday, January 15, 2009

The 2008 Defense – A Historic Turnaround

Last year I pointed out that our relative woes were due to a nearly worst ever Gator defensive unit.

What a difference a year makes.

The Florida defense ended the year with 12.9 points per game surrendered, or an incredible 12.56 points per game better than last year’s 25.46 ppg. In other words our defense gave up nearly half per game what the 2007 team did.

Where does that defense rank in Florida history? Well comparisons to the very old, pre-forward pass era aren’t fair, but to find the next season better than this year’s Gators in points per game surrendered you have to go all the way back to 1975 and Doug Dickey’s 9-3 squad, which surrendered 9.75 points per game.

That’s right this year’s defense was even better than 2006’s champions who gave up 13.5 points per game.

What’s more when you consider scoring margin, or the difference between offensive scoring and defensive, the 2008 Gator squad is the best team in Gator history. The top ten Gator teams by scoring margin –

2008 30.74
1996 30
2001 30
1994 23.84
1995 22.69
1993 20.69
1990 19.63
1997 18.75
1998 17.92
2007 17

Much has been made of Florida’s offense this year, and the amazing skills of players like Tim Tebow and Percy Harvin.

However much of the real credit for our 2008 BCS title belongs to Charlie Strong and his defense.

The bad news for our opponents next year – with the return of Brandon Spikes and prospectively all defensive starters, we might just be better.

Update: I decided to see how our scoring margin compared to other teams this year, and found Florida to be the NCAA's best. The top ten -

1 Florida 30.74
2 Southern California 28.54
3 Oklahoma 26.64
4 Boise St. 25.02
5 Penn St. 24.52
6 Texas 23.58
7 TCU 22.32
8 Utah 19.72
9 Tulsa 19.31
10 Iowa 17.31

On Strength of Schedule

When it comes to strength of schedule issues, I prefer to use the NCAA’s own system for both its simplicity and transparency. The NCAA measures simply the win-loss record of teams faced, and has none of the “black box” elements of system’s like Sagarin.

Is it perfect? No, nothing is. But it does a pretty good job of comparing schedules, even between those teams of BCS conferences and non-BCS conferences. Sure you can argue that non-BCS teams end up playing their “own” thus inflating their NCAA SOS, but because the non-BCS conferences usually play tougher conferences during their seasons, and rack up losses accordingly, they tend to have worse win-loss records. A perfect example of this is a conference like the Sun Belt, where the best team (and conference winner) Troy had an 8-5 record even though they lost only 1 conference game. If you look at the teams Troy played in their conference (with records) you see -

Louisiana-Lafayette 6-6
Florida Atlantic 7-6
Arkansas State 6-6
Florida International 5-7
Middle Tennessee State 5-7
Louisiana-Monroe 4-8
North Texas 1-11

Accordingly Troy had a NCAA strength of schedule that placed them 100th, a perfectly legitimate ranking. And teams that played Troy only got to place an 8-5 team on their record, not something artificially inflated.

Oklahoma had the toughest schedule per the NCAA in 2008, and I can’t disagree. Florida was second, and the top ten were –

1 Oklahoma
2 Florida
3 Texas
4 Georgia
5 Arkansas
6 Ohio St.
7 Kansas
8 Florida St.
9 Syracuse
10 Virginia

No non-BCS conference teams made it in the top ten, with the highest coming in 22nd for TCU, who had to play Oklahoma, BYU and Utah.

However merely ranking them in order doesn’t do the strength of schedule justice, as there can be real differences between teams closely ranked. Oklahoma, for instance, played teams with a 95-50 record, while 2nd place Florida say teams that went 93-53. By this metric the Sooner’s schedule was 2.9% “harder”.

And while Utah – my BlogPoll number one – placed a respectable 32nd in SOS nationally, Florida’s schedule was 16% harder than the Utes. Is that 16% enough to overcome the Gator’s one home loss? It was a close call.

However when we are talking about Utah, take a look at the teams with schedules worse than the Utes, with their national ranking and the percentage Utah’s schedule was tougher –

35 Alabama 0.86%
37 Georgia Tech 1.20%
38 Southern California 1.44%
44 Penn St. 2.72%
45 LSU 2.72%
47 Cincinnati 3.27%
51 Nebraska 3.76%
53 West Virginia 4.21%
54 Michigan 4.21%
56 California 4.78%
61 Arizona St. 6.40%
62 Wisconsin 6.50%
67 Oregon 7.55%
69 Tennessee 8.14%
89 Notre Dame 18.79%

Now presumably any of these, had they qualified, would have played for the BCS title.

Several came very close to doing exactly that.

Tuesday, January 13, 2009

Recruiting

One last BCSCG item, and now on to recruiting

Besides the X’s and O’s of college football, recruiting is my favorite of the game. So without further ado here is my assessment, gathered from multiple places, of where the Gators stand.

Early Enrollees.
The following recruits are currently enrolled at the University of Florida:

Dee Finley. Finley committed to the Gators last year, but had some work to do in order to gain admittance to UF, so he went to Prep School last fall. The 5th ranked Safety in 2008, Finley has decent size already (6’1” 193lbs) and it wouldn’t be a shock to see him grow into an OLB.

Edwin Herbert. Herbert is a JC DT from the #1 JUCO Football Team, City College of San Francisco and originally committed to Tennessee. Herbert, originally from Fairfield, CA, is 6’4” 300lbs and chose the Gators over Arkansas, Tennessee, Nebraska and North Carolina State. My understanding is that the injuries suffered along the defensive line throughout the year made the staff feel as though a JUCO DT was a necessity.

Nick Alajajian. Alajajian, the #1 rated OG, is from Naples, FL. At 6’4” 280lbs, Alajajian will have to put on some weight before he can play in the SEC, but you have to love his style. Alajajian chose the Gators over Miami, Florida State, Georgia, and Notre Dame.

Jon Bostic. Bostic, the #3 rated WLB, is from Wellington, FL. He is 6’2” 225lbs and runs a 4.5 forty. Those in the evaluation business say he needs to learn the position a little better, but has great athleticism, speed and hitting ability.

Jonatthon Harrison. Harrison, the 11th rated OG, is from South Lake HS. He is listed at 6’3” and 285lbs. He is a considered an excellent prospect with extremely long arms (a bonus in pass protection) that will need to work on his technique before he gets to play (then again what HS lineman don’t).

Desmond Parks. Parks is a 6’6” 215lb TE, who is more in the mold of Tate Casey than Aaron Hernandez. Reports from the Offense Defense Game (one of the many High School All American games) had him as one of the top 15 players on the East Squad (as was Harrison) and should be a matchup nightmare once he sees the field, which may be sooner than later given the fact that Hernandez is the only TE on the Gator roster as of today.

Current Commits – non-binding – by position:

Quarterback:

Jordan Reed. Reed, from New London, CT, committed to the Gators back in August. At 6’3” and 225lbs he is a huge QB prospect. The scouting report on Reed says that he is a tremendous leader with excellent size and speed (4.59 in the forty). While he does lack some experience, sitting behind both Tebow and Brantley, Reed will have plenty of time to mature.

Running Back:

Mike Gillislee. Gillislee, from DeLand, committed to the Gators early in the process, only to re-open the recruiting process last week, which led to him confirming that he is 100% Gator earlier this week. Yes you have to love January in Recruiting. Gillislee has pretty good size at 6’0” 190lbs, and excellent speed at 4.5 in the forty. While he is not likely to move the pile, when given an opening he is very likely to produce a big play. Gillislee was the most impressive player during the Central Florida All-Star game, which had about 20 Div. 1 prospects.

Wide Receiver:

Andre Debose. Debose committed to the Gators during the 4th Quarter of the Under Armor All American game, which was televised on ESPN. He lead his team to a State Championship and is the best of the Seminole 3, teammates Armstrong and Dye committed to Miami. He is also widely considered the closest thing to Percy Harvin. Debose has tremendous speed and quickness, which shown during his touchdown during the Under Armor game. At 5’11.5” 180lbs, Debose has good size and might be able to make it on the field next year. The only factor that might keep Debose from keeping his verbal commitment is Percy himself, who as of today has not informed the coaches whether or not he is going to the NFL.

Nu’keese Richardson. Richardson, from Pahokee, goes by the nickname “Nuke”, and rightly so. Although he is only 5’9” 165lbs, he runs a 4.4 forty and is lightning quick and will not hurt Coach Meyer’s moniker of becoming the fastest team in football. Richardson is the #6 rated WR and considered an excellent prospect. He was one of the most impressive players on the Black Squad at the Under Armor game, where he also played CB.

Offensive Line:

Jon Halapio. Halapio, from Saint Petersburg Catholic, is not as highly rated as some of the other OL prospects but he is a load. At 6’4” 300lbs he possesses the size, attitude and determination that this staff loves. According to the talent evaluators once he gets better technique, he will be a force to reckon with.

Kyle Koehne. Koehne, from Indianapolis, IN, was the winner of the Offensive Lineman of the year in the State of Indiana and the best player at any position in the State of Indiana by the Indianapolis Star. At 6’6” 300lbs, Koehne projects as either a guard or right tackle and has excellent technique and is fundamentally sound.

Xavier Nixon. Nixon, Fayetteville, NC, is the best offensive line prospect of this class, which is without a doubt the #1 OL class in the country. At 6’6” 285lbs, Nixon, the Maxwell Award winner, possesses tremendous strength, great feet, and a mean streak. The son of a military man, who recently returned from Afghanistan, it is only fitting that Nixon committed to the Gators during the Army All-American game. Although he chose the Gators over LSU and Miami his choice was one of the worst-kept secrets at the Army All-American game.

Defensive Line:

Gary Brown. Brown, from Quincy, FL, is 6’4” 275lbs and a beast. He consistently beat the OL during the UA game and he recently became a 5 star player based on this performance. Although there were rumors that Brown would visit FSU, he has decided against it and will stick with the commitment he made in March 2008, after his junior season when he had 25 sacks and 20 tackles for loss.

Kendric Johnson. Johnson, from Palmetto, FL, is 6’4” 215lbs and very fast – 4.7 forty. As a junior Johnson recorded 19 sacks and had another 24 sacks this year. To say that Johnson has flown under the radar this year would not be an exaggeration for the 3 star player.

Linebacker:

None as of this report.

Defensive Back:

Marsalis Teague. Teague, from Paris, TN, is 5’10” 175lbs and runs a 4.5 forty. He plays cornerback, which is good since Wondy Pierre Louis recently declared for the NFL. Yes I know that is crazy so don’t get me started. Teague was voted the Tennessee player of the year and the Gatorade Player of the Year in Tennessee after rushing for over 1600 yards and 22 touchdowns and throwing for over 1300 yards and another 18 touchdowns, this all in limited play due to the scores of the games. Teague chose the Gators over Miami, Alabama and Tennessee amongst others.

Stay tuned for a look at who is left on the Gators recruiting board leading up to Signing Day in February.

Monday, January 12, 2009

My Vote

My final BlogPoll of 2008 is duly submitted, and I have chosen Utah as number 1.

It wasn’t easy, despite my pledge to do so after Utah beat Alabama. I was truly torn between the Utes and my own Gators. And, for the record, I think the Gators are the “best” team in college football right now. But Utah has the best resume, if just barely. Certainly when we compare their head-to-head opponent – Alabama – Utah had the edge.

Moreover, Utah played a credible schedule in 2008 that ranked 32nd according to the NCAA.

Most importantly, they won all of the games in front of them, something no other school can claim. While I believe Florida would beat Utah head-to-head a majority of the time, my Gator’s own loss to Mississippi in the Swamp is just enough of a stain to give Utah the slim edge.

As for all the usual arguments, there are two I would like to dispel –

1. Why don’t they “join a real conference”?

First of all, who to say the Mountain West isn’t real, despite their non-BCS status? 5 of the 9 MWC teams went to bowl games, or as many teams that went to bowls from the 10 member Pac Ten. And while we are comparing them to the Pac Ten, according to the BCS computer component the Colley Matrix the two conferences had similar strengths when you compare teams by rankings -

Mountain West Colley Standings

3. Utah
11. TCU
26. BYU
47. Air Force
53. Colorado State
78. UNLV
89. New Mexico
96. Wyoming
111. San Diego State

Average of teams Utah played - 63.9

Pac Ten Colley Standings

4. USC
14. Oregon
16. Oregon State
21. Cal
48. Arizona
67. Stanford
73. Arizona State
81. UCLA
108. Washington State
117. Washington

Average of teams USC played - 60.5

The Utes supplemented their schedule with Michigan (blech) and Oregon State, who beat USC. If you would average in Oregon State to the Utes schedule as a “9th” conference game Utah actually played a harder “conference” schedule than USC, averaging a 58.6 Colley ranking.

Of course USC, with a NCAA schedule ranked worse than Utah at 38th, would have gone to the BCS title game if they won every game. It is manifestly unjust to hold Utah, with an arguably harder schedule, to a stricter standard.

As for joining a “real” conference, it isn’t necessarily that easy. Utah actually tried to join the Pac Ten in 1978 but was passed over (along with BYU) for Arizona and Arizona State by the then Pac Eight. People act as if teams like Utah are somehow “ducking” competition by not joining the big conferences, when it is pretty obvious they would love to – after all that’s where the money is.

Finally, in regard to this argument, if BCS conference teams can play these non-BCS teams – and count them as wins – it is absurd they can’t compete for the same titles. Florida was willing to play Hawaii for the first game this year, and that same Hawaii team is part of our 13 win record. Yet Hawaii was denied any chance to play for a national title just last year.

2. Alabama wasn’t motivated against Utah.

And that’s Utah’s fault, even if true?

First of all I don’t believe it is, but if true, it is a damning statement about Alabama football, and the bowls in general. Are we really playing top bowl games, BCS level bowl games, among teams that don’t give a damn?

I can’t think of a more compelling argument to destroy the current bowl system than this. If only one bowl game “counts”, why in the hell do I have to watch 34?

As for the game itself, think for an instance how close Alabama was to playing for the BCS title. No one would have questioned Alabama as an undefeated team in the title game. And, say had 1- loss Oklahoma played Alabama and won as convincingly as Utah, they would have been the consensus “national champion”. Utah’s argument is no different than USC’s was in 2003, when the 12-1 Trojans beat a 2-loss Michigan team to claim the AP title over 1-loss BCS winner LSU. Hell, Utah’s argument is better.

As for the rest –

1 Utah 25 2 Florida 24 3 Texas 23 4 Southern Cal 22 5 Oklahoma 21 6 Alabama 20 7 TCU 19 8 Boise State 18 9 Penn State 17 10 Texas Tech 16 11 Ohio State 15 12 Oregon 14 13 Mississippi 13 14 Georgia 12 15 Virginia Tech 11 16 Cincinnati 10 17 Oregon State 9 18 Iowa 8 19 Florida State 7 20 Georgia Tech 6 21 West Virginia 5 22 Michigan State 4 23 Missouri 3 24 Oklahoma State 2 25 LSU 1

Dropped Out:


Finally, congratulations to my Gators for a fantastic season. We are BCS Champions and, most importantly, SEC Champions.

As for “national champions” - perhaps one day. But I’m an adult, so along with the tooth fairy and the Easter bunny, there are certain things adults just can’t believe in.

Sunday, January 11, 2009

Buy memorabilia and help a good cause.

Got this press release with a personal appeal:

For Immediate Release
Contacts: Bob Ibach (941-312-4588 or 847-922-6686)
Children’s Miracle Network to Benefit Shands Children’s Hospital at the University of Florida: Margaret Friend (352-265-7953)

Limited Edition Football & Display Case Makes a Great Collectible
Florida Gators Make It 2 Titles in 3 Years With Defensive Win Over Oklahoma

Now Fans Have Chance For Historic Piece of Memorabilia, Funds from Sales Will Bring Smiles To Children’s Miracle Network & Shands Children’s Hospital at U. of Florida

Miami, FL -- Using two great first half defensive goal line stands against a team that regularly put up 60 or more points a game, the Florida Gators proved once again that great defenses are the answer to powerful offenses on a football field.

Facing the No. 1-ranked Oklahoma Sooners, a team that had set a NCAA modern day record for points (702) in a season behind the arm of Heisman Trophy quarterback Sam Bradford, Florida broke open a 14-14 game late in the contest at Dolphin Stadium en route to a 24-14 victory to give coach Urban Meyer his 2nd BCS Championship in three seasons, and the third national title in school history.

And with that big win, the children at Shands Children’s Hospital at UF, a facility named after William A. Shands who was a member of the Florida football team 100 years ago, will also be celebrating in the forthcoming days.

Nikco Sports announced it will continue a special program it began shortly before Christmas to raise funds for many youngsters associated with the Children’s Miracle Network to benefit Shands Children’s Hospital at UF through the sale of a limited edition (just 5,000) full-sized NCAA Championship Football.
The Gators title footballs, with the phrase “2009 National Champions” printed on one of the special white panels, are priced at $99 each and include a display case with a handsome black base. In recent years, Nikco Sports has raised close to $1.7 million for children’s charities and other special endeavors, including past programs saluting Gators football and basketball titles that have raised funds for those at Shands Children’s Hospital.

Fans can order the footballs by calling 1-800-345-2868 or visiting www.nikcosports.com. Each football comes with a numbered certificate of authenticity. The football will feature three distinct and attractive white panels, each one full of historic and important information. These will not be sold elsewhere, making it a “must-have” for any diehard Gators fan, an item that can be displayed proudly at home or at the office.

The Florida Gators football program began in 1906, two years before William A. Shands made his gridiron debut. Since that time, Florida has played in 34 bowl games, won 8 SEC titles, produced 135 All-Americans and 35 NFL first round draft choices and 3 Heisman Trophy winners (Steve Spurrier in 1966, Danny Wuerffel in 1996 and Tim Tebow in 2007). Florida is one of only three schools to win 10 games in a season for six consecutive seasons (1993-98) and one of three to win 9 games for 12 straight years.

Tebow played a major part in the winning the latest title by tossing for 232 yards and two touchdowns and running for another 109 yards against the Sooners of the Big 12 Conference.

Here’s a quick overview of each white panel on the Florida Gators football:

Panel One will contain information about Florida’s football history, and salutes the 2008 season accomplishments. It lists the final regular season record and 2008 SEC title, along with the official logo for the NCAA title game on January 8, 2009, and the colorful official University of Florida logo.

Panel Two will recap the 2008 season, game-by-game, with opponents and final scores of each contest, and also will be framed by another Gators logo.

Panel Three will have the official BCS full color logo, played in Miami on January 8, and include the final 24-14 final score with the phrase National Champions.

“Gator fans have once again witnessed a dominating season of football in winning the national title for the third time in school history, and twice in the past three years—this really shows the dominance of their program on a national scope,” said Nikco Sports CEO Craig Bidner, whose company has continued to give back to the community since its inception in 1992. “We’re very pleased to present this historic piece of sports memorabilia for Gator fans to enjoy and savor for years to come, as we did when they won the title two years ago. The response to that program was overwhelming.

“At the same time, we’re especially honored to be again joining forces with Shands Children’s Hospital at UF as we continue to try and help raise funds for so many deserving youngsters during the holiday season.”

During the past several years, Nikco Sports has almost $1.7 million for charitable organizations across the nation with the issue of limited-edition sports memorabilia that has honored amateur and professional teams, as well as select athletes such athletes as Dan Marino, Brett Favre, Jerome Bettis, Ben Roethlisberger, along with Peyton Manning, Jim Kelly, Carson Palmer, Steve Young, John Elway, David Robinson, John Stockton, Magic Johnson, Roger Clemens, Ryne Sandberg, Paul Molitor, Kirby Puckett, Edgar Martinez, Ichiro, Ozzie Smith, Mark McGwire, Ken Griffey Jr., Nolan Ryan, Tony Gwynn, Craig Biggio and Cal Ripken Jr.

*****

Children’s Miracle Network is an alliance of more than 170 premier hospitals for children providing the best hospital care when they need it. Shands Children’s Hospital is one of the leading referring hospitals in the state of Florida, treating kids from all over the state, 45 different states and 5 countries. Funds raised help children in the community by purchasing life-saving medical equipment and diversionary items, funding pediatric research, and producing patient education materials. For more information, visit http://www.shandskids.org/.

Saturday, January 10, 2009

Who's number one?

Regardless of how you might feel about computer rankings, there's something to keep in mind when examining them. The people that come up with the models are trying to create them to be accurate. They have nothing to gain by creating a faulty model. They use some sort of input data for each team and relate it to the same type of data for every other team. Because there is some out of conference play the models can "connect" the results from those games to results of other games. Unfortunately, like the neighborhood foot race, the sample size isn't big enough for the connectedness to too meaningful. And then there's the issue of the BCS' dumb rules about not using computer rankings that have margin of victory in their model. But there's a lot of computer rankings out there that aren't constrained by those rules and it's worth looking at them.

There's a handy dandy comparison of 53 different computer rankings here.

The Gators are ranked number 1 in all but 12 of those rankings. Of those 12, the Gators took the second spot in 10. The Gators are ranked third in one and fourth in one.

The Utes took the top spot in 7 computer rankings. USC was ranked first by three of the computers. Texas was the best team according to one lonely computer. Despite their two losses Oklahoma was ranked number one by one computer.

In the computer rankings used for the BCS, the Gators were ranked second in Wolfe and Sagarin (ELO). Both had Utah number one.

When aggregated, the 53 different computer rankings give us this top five:

1. Florida
2. USC
3. Texas
4. Oklahoma
5. Utah

How bad was Oklahoma's defense in 2008?

I know that sounds like a harsh question, after all the Sooners were the top ranked team in the nation scarcely 24 hours ago, but I have some numbers that shed some light. Last season we Gator fans were exasperated by our defense. In a year where our QB won the Heisman and our offense lit up opposing defenses we lost 4 games by giving up an average of 25.46 points per game. At the time we noted that in order to find a worse Gator defense in the record books you had to go all the way back to 1971. That's right the 2007 defense gave up more points per game than the previous 35 Gator defenses.

Well this season's version of the Sooners, as we have pointed out already, surrendered an average of 24.5 points per game. That's within a point of one of the worst Gator defenses ever. Perhaps if voters in the coaches and Harris polls looked at things rationally they would have selected another team, perhaps USC to appear in last nights game. But this system doesn't care about rationality. It's a popularity contest, an election, plain and simple.

Friday, January 09, 2009

The Fastest Boy in all the Land

I didn't come up with this analogy but I think it works.

Imagine that you're a 12 year old kid and you decide you want to find out who the fastest kid on the block is. You run a race and there's this one kid smokes everyone else, his name is Mikey. You go home thinking with all of your 12-year old wisdom and logic that the way he ran, Mikey isn't just the fastest kid on the block. Surely he is the fastest boy in all the land.

The next day you run another race and you invite a kid from the next block to participate. The kid has Forrest Gump-like braces on his legs but not Forrest Gump-like speed. Still he is the designated representative from the neighboring block and once again Mikey smokes the field. You go home more convinced than ever Mikey is simply the fastest boy in the land.

You run 10 more races and Mikey wins all of them by wide margins except for one in which he tripped on a pothole and got beat by a nose on a day he was running a fever of 104. Clearly he's the fastest boy in the land.

Then one day a boy from some distant unheard of place shows up and challenges Mikey to a race. When the race is over and the dust settles Mikey is in tears trying to rebuild his ego after getting whipped.

Mikey's name could be BUCKY or BOOMER or whatever; it doesn't matter because clearly to your 12-year old wisdom and logic this stranger is the fastest boy in all the land.
Do you see how absurd this is?

The true defensive MVP

Ahmad Black should have won the defensive MVP award. His brilliant interception in the 4th quarter is what won the game for the Gators.



At that moment OU was moving the ball down the field with a chance to tie or take the lead. Of course, after the interception the Gators drove the ball inside the 5-yard line where Tebow threw a jump pass that was as beautiful as the original one against LSU a couple of years ago was ugly.

Basking in all that is Orange & Blue

These are my initial reactions to the game, based on my experience watching it in person. I plan on watching the television broadcast tonight, so I will probably add to this later.

1. I think this game was the first time I have ever been disappointed to be kicking off to begin the game. In hindsight it worked out fine. Plus Major Wright, with a Reggie Nelson-esque hit, was able to set the tone of the game 1 minute in.



2. I have never in my life seen a team that lined up and snapped the ball quicker than OU. It was an amazing thing to see in person (can’t wait to see how it played out on tv). The tempo of the OU offense has to be the reason that I felt like we were behind the entire game, even though we never trailed.

3. The first half was the worst football this team played this year, excluding the 3rd Quarter against Ole Miss. The fact that we were tied at 7 actually made me feel better about the game. Speaking of which, great effort by Louis Murphy to get our touchdown, but I couldn’t say kick the extra point enough times to avoid any replay.

4. I have never seen a game more poorly officiated in my life. I try to stay away from bashing referees, especially given the speed of the game today, but this ACC crew was horrific at best. The first quarter of the game had absolutely no rhythm because of it. The missed holding calls, the penalty on Tebow, the non-call on the tackle of Rainey, etc. I would also like to thank the referee for blowing his whistle into his microphone, that was a nice added bonus from this crew.

5. This might have been our worst tackling game of the year, but somehow we managed to get the job done.

6. Was anyone else surprised that it took until the 2nd half for Mullen to call a play that would get Tebow emotionally invested in the game? Yes I know he was jacked up for the game, but Tebow needs to hit someone in order to settle down. I was shocked that they didn’t put Tebow in a position to run over a corner or take on a safety on the 2nd or 3rd drive of the game.

7. The shovel passes to Hernandez were the best calls by Dan Mullen. Perfect situations for those calls.

8. In a game full of big plays here are the ones that stood out to me for the Gators – besides touchdowns and blocked field goal.

a. Torrey Davis’s 4th down stop
b. Major Wright’s interception
c. Tebow pass to Cooper on 3rd and 11
d. Brandon Hicks’s sack
e. Percy’s run on 1st and 10 from the 3
f. Ahmad Black’s incredible interception

9. Our play on both sides of the ball on 3rd downs was incredible. Even when OU converted their 3rd downs they were contested. Tremendous job of preparation by the staff!

10. A 14-14 game with 12 minutes to go, and the Gators get 8 first downs, gain 183 yards and score 10 points over those last 12 minutes. Oklahoma? 1 first down, 21 yards and zero points.

11. The player that pulled on Percy’s leg is now equal to Darnell Docket to me.

12. It was a great win and as always it is great to be a Florida Gator.

Observations from the game

First thing is that my feelings during and after the game were completely different than two years ago. Against OSU my anxiety quickly turned to elation. On the other hand last night I had a sense of foreboding like the other shoe was going to drop at any moment. This was driven by two things which are relatively rare for this edition of the Gators:

1. Tebow interceptions. He threw two bad picks in uncharacteristic fashion.

2. Coaching mistake. I have rarely (if ever) seen Urban Meyer make a flat-out coaching mistake but last night he did. In a close game with Oklahoma punting from deep in their in own territory, Meyer called for a punt block. If you have one of the most dangerous return men in the country and you stand to get the ball (at worst) your own 40 yard line, why take a chance knowing you could bail OU out with a free first down on a roughing call. OSU ended up punting on that possession anyway but the field position changed.
In 2006 winning the SEC and BCS was pure elation because of the lean Zook years in which I almost lost hope. This year I expected the Gators to win and be competitive at the top of the national picture.

I felt that OU was being "too cute" with their "check with the sideline" approach. They hurried up to the line but often ended up using about as much time as they might have had they huddled. The Gators too used this "cuteness" and it bit us on the ass somewhat with false starts.

I was listening to Steve Czaban on the radio and he said that OU's much maligned defense played good enough to win. Well, if OU's much maligned defense gave up an average of 24.5 points per game this season and they gave up 24 to Florida shouldn't they be maligned for that?

The point is that championship teams in college don't rank 57th in scoring defense. In the BCS era the winner of #1 vs. #2 match has historically on average ranked sixth in the nation in scoring defense. 57th is a far cry from 6th. Granted OU's offense played far below their averages and that's mainly why they lost but their defense played basically to the level they played at all season and that simply isn't good enough.

OU fans seemed gracious and classy. Perhaps being humbled so many times in big games in recent memory gave them trepidation about being cocky. I know I wasn't cocky. I thought we had an advantage based on our defense and that we should win the game. But that's an intellectual exercise and I've been a fan long enough and had my heart broken enough to know that the better team doesn't always win.

I still feel bad for Utah and I feel bad for the Gators. One of the things that makes me angry about the ludicrous BCS system is that the controversy it inspires actually takes away from the winner's glory. Florida won and yet there's a lot of AP writers who voted for Utah. And that's their right. But the point is that some will point to that and the records of the two teams and take away some legitimacy from the Gators. Meanwhile, Pete Carroll is recognized as having "two national titles" when in reality it's one or perhaps if you are charitable 1.5. It's a joke and it needs to be fixed.

If "every game is a playoff game" in college football as the apologists for the system claim, show me where Utah lost a playoff game. I wish there was a way we could play Utah or USC or Texas and have an undisputed champion.

Herald Columnist Surprised...

That defense wins championships. He should read blogs more often.

Florida Uber Alles

WARNING: This post contains graphic and extreme amounts of boastfulness, and the sensitive may want to turn away now.

Sam Bradford Would be the 5th Best Quarterback in the SEC

Can they take back Heismans?

No, really. Last night Bradford had a passer rating of 122.41, easily his lowest effort of the season (and 64.8 points worse than his Texas loss). The average QB ratings of the top 4 SEC quarterbacks are –

Tebow (Florida) – 172.40
Stafford (Georgia) – 153.54
Snead (Ole Miss) – 145.50
Dick (Arkansas) – 122.45

So Bradford is not even as good as Dick. And Dick’s don’t win Heisman’s, at least not in the SEC.

Defense – Still Winning Championships.

How the Sooners might have gone winless in conference

Oklahoma was held to 14 points in Miami, a mere 40 points lower than their seasonal average. Had the lame slate of Big 12 foes Oklahoma played this year held the Sooners to 14 points a game (or, in any game), Oklahoma would have gone 0-8 in the Big 12 during the regular season, losing even to Baylor 17-14. (For the season they would have been 3-9.)

Moreover, the Sooner’s 363 yards total offense was 179 yards less than their seasonal average.

So the oft blogged about prevalence of defense winning championships continues. As they say, WE saw it coming.

The SEC

Our best is better than your best. Always.

With three BCS titles in a row the SEC now moves to 5-0 in BCS title games, having won 45% of all BCS titles awarded (5 of 11). No other conference is remotely close, in fact no other conference even has a winning record in BCS title games, much less a perfect one.

Time and again the best of the SEC is better than anyone else.



Hey Georgia…







… wasn’t this supposed to be yours this season?


The Clowns are Down

Daggummit!

As we were leaving the game a friend reminded me that we were now up one “national” championship on that Clown College to the north on I-10. With that – and a five game Gator win streak – we hope Bobby stays with you a long, long, long time.

At Least It Was Competitive

Q: Take the Big Ten winner out of the BCS Title game and what do you get?

A: An actual game.

Big 12 Mythology

RIP

The “super” conference flails its way to a 3-4 bowl record. Here’s an idea – try a little something called defense.

The Carroll Lobbying Firm

Closed for business

All the begging by SoCal Pete only nets the Trojans 3rd in the AP with a single, measly number 1 vote.

And, despite the talk of “two national championships”, how many little crystal trophies are there at USC?
Anyone, anyone?

How many?

Would the columnists and pundits and talking heads that were so willing to give Ron Zook credit for the 2006 BCS Championship team at Florida please now stand up and remind us how many of the current Gator championship squad were recruited by the Zooker.

Anyone?

Another lame argument bit the dust this season. Zook, when left to his own devices, coaches teams in a backward direction. Meyer does the opposite. He takes individuals (and pardon the cliche) makes them worth more than the simple sum of their parts.

Why the Sooners lost...

Because defensively they performed as well (or as poorly) as they have all season. At least from a scoring standpoint.

Season Avg. PPG Allowed: 24.5

Tonight, Points allowed: 24
Looking at the yardage we see where Oklahoma was much more vulnerable than during the season:
Season Avg. YPG allowed: 359.1

Tonight, Yards allowed: 479

Season Pass YPG: 253.1

Tonight, Pass Yards allowed: 232

Season Rush YPG allowed: 106

Tonight, Rush Yards allowed: 247
Obviously the Gators ran roughshod over the Sooners but it was Tebow (108 yards) and Harvin (121 yards) that did it. Gator running backs accounted for only 20 net rushing yards.

Looking at the Gators, they also had the kind of defensive performance that was indicated by their regular season average:
Season Avg. PPG allowed: 12.8

Tonight, Points allowed: 14
I think we can put the lame excuses for Oklahoma's lousy defensive stats (they blew people out so much that they played the reserves, they scored so fast their defense didn't get chance to rest, the offenses in the Big XII are so much better than those in the SEC) to bed once and for all. The Gators only gave up 1.2 points more than their average for the season against the nation's highest scoring offense.

Thursday, January 08, 2009

Shanoff's Wake-up call - UPDATED

A quick note of thanks to Dan Shanoff of the Sporting News for linking to us. For those of you who aren't familiar, Dan is a Florida alum and used to write something called the "Daily Quickie" for ESPN. Now he has a similar column at the Sporting Blog and his personal blog is here.

UPDATE:

I stand corrected. From Dan Shanoff:

Based on the way I obsess about Florida football, you'd THINK I went to Florida, wouldn't you? Or, at the very least, perhaps grew up in Florida? Or maybe my parents were big Florida fans and instilled that in me. That would be reasonable, wouldn't it?

But, no: The Gators became my favorite team after I met my wife (then girlfriend), the one who DID grow up in Gainesville, steps from the Swamp, and whose family was so immersed in Florida fandom (her parents both went to then worked at UF) that I was overwhelmed and adopted the team as my own.

It was a blind date with my future wife -- and it was love at first sight, for her and for her favorite team.
He's a Gator by marriage. Same as my wife. A Gator nonetheless.

What's Worse than Winning a Fake Championship?

Losing one.

Today is the day. Go GATORS!

Wednesday, January 07, 2009

Final Thoughts

At this point I am giddy and restless, like my 5 year-old before Christmas. In my defense it is Gameday Eve so I think that earns me a pass. To my delight a replay of the 2006 National Championship Game was on SunSports, so while getting ready for tomorrow's game I put the game on. I watched while getting the coolers ready. I also decided to reach out to contacts to see how this year's team was "acting" prior to the game.

Watching the game, a few things became apparent. First, on offense, I think we should expect a few new wrinkles. Nothing that gets away from what we have been doing too much, just something new for the defense. If you remember the Tempe game, the offense took advantage of Ohio State's linebackers by having them cover what was essentially long hand-offs to our slot receivers. Say what you will about our staff, but there is no arguing with the fact that this staff incredible at finding a defense's weakness and exposing it. We also threw to Latsko a couple of times and he picked up good yardage on the plays. I am not sure what the new wrinkles will be, but my best guess is using Moody more regularly. I do know that Oklahoma's defense has a great front four and better than average safeties. I also know that they have struggled against the pass. The more research I do, the more my feeling that we will use the short passing game to open up the rest of the offense is confirmed. I am also hearing that the o-line is most fired aspect of the team.


Second, I think we will see a couple of trick plays that haven't been shown before. Something along the lines of Percy throwing the ball. I doubt we will do anything crazy along the lines of the hook and ladder that Utah used against Pittsburgh but I would not be surprised if we did something similar.


On defense, there will be new schemes. There has to be, the layoff dictates that. There has been too much time to for Oklahoma's staff to dissect our play for us to do all the same things. Coach Strong is excellent at devising blitz schemes, so I expect to see something different when it comes to the blitz package. I also wouldn't be surprised to see some different personnel used. Ryan Stamper will, in all likelihood, be on the field more than A.J. Jones. In a 3-3-5 Stamper would be the guy in the middle, Spikes would slide over the Jones's spot. I also expect us to be more physical with their receivers. If you haven't heard the numbers they are astounding, Sam Bradford averages 13 pass attempts for every hit, not sack, hit. That is amazing. It also explains why he has been so good this year. You have probably heard our players say that watching OU's offense seems like watching 7 on 7 drills. Our defense's job is to change that. Making Bradford uncomfortable has to be priority #1. I expect our defense to play with a purpose. Word is that the defensive staff has been telling the players OU expects to hang 60 on them. Remember Meyer has a degree in Psychology and he is a master at using mind games to get an advantage.

The coaching staff feels that there will be at least 1 big play on special teams. I couldn't discern whether the feeling was a big return from a finally healthy Brandon James or a block. But I am expecting at least one big return and something from our punt block team. Remember Coach Meyer oversees this aspect of the team himself, so to say its a priority is an understatement.

There will be an unlikely hero. We know that Cornelius Ingram will be in uniform and just his presence on the field, in uniform, might be enough to inspire this team. Especially after he gave the speech of his life the other night at Senior Tackle Night. Supposedly he said that despite the injury he would make the same decision all over again, that this team was that important to him. Not surprisingly there wasn't a dry eye in the room. But I think there will be someone else. There always is in Championship Games. Maybe its Moody fulfilling the hype, maybe it is Riley Cooper being more than the best blocking receiver on the field, maybe its Torrey Davis, or Justin Trattou. I don't know but someone will play above the level they have played at all year.

Finally, my sources tell me the team has been all business. No going out. Just all business. That to me is the best news of all, because no matter the result at least they are coming to play the game.

Florida – Oklahoma: The Defenses

Second in a series of statistical comparisons between the BCS Title game opponents

Once again, conventional wisdom has the BCS title game as a match up of offense (Oklahoma) against defense (Florida), the unstoppable force against the immovable object. In our first part of this series we compared the offenses with the conclusion that the two teams were pretty evenly matched, with perhaps an ever so slight edge to the Sooners. In the second part of the series we will take a look at the defenses, and see what edge Florida might really have.

The Defenses


NCAA Scoring Defense Ranks

5. Florida – 12.8 ppg
57. Oklahoma – 24.5 ppg


The first defensive statistic jumps right out at you, with Florida 5th nationally verses Oklahoma a perfectly mediocre 57th. And, in points per game, Oklahoma surrenders nearly twice in every contest that the Gators do. The obvious – and far superior – edge seems to go to Florida here. Let’s look further to see how far this edge holds up.

NCAA Total Defense Ranks

9. Florida – 279.31 ypg
65. Oklahoma - 359.08 ypg

By yards surrendered per game the Oklahoma scoring defense at 57th is no aberration, with their yard per game surrendered an even worse 65th nationally. In the course of an average game Oklahoma gives up 80 more yards a game than Florida.

But as we did for the offense, this statistic bears a deeper look. In 2008 Florida defended a total of 826 plays, while Oklahoma faced 922.

Florida average yards per play surrendered – 4.43
Oklahoma average yards per play surrendered – 5.06

Much like analyzing the yards per play on offense showed a Florida team more even matched offensively to Oklahoma than first blush, Oklahoma comes away better on defense by this metric although Florida still leads. And once again the question of why Oklahoma has more plays – this time on defense – still looms, especially when the two teams have nearly identical time of possession - 29:46 for Oklahoma and 29:44 for Florida (72nd and 73rd in the NCAA).

Were we to rank the teams nationally by Yards per Play defensively, Florida would still be 9th in the nation (USC is 1st at an eye popping 3.38 ypp). Oklahoma however, by this metric, would improve to 46th. While still not terribly impressive, 46th is still better than the 65th in yards per game. It seems much of Oklahoma’s overall poor ranking in this category is a result of the number of plays allowed on defense.

NCAA Rushing Defense Ranks

16. Florida – 105.3 ypg
18. Oklahoma – 106.0 ypg

I must admit I was surprised this statistic was this close, and that Oklahoma is virtually the equal of Florida in stopping the run. When you make this comparison based on yards surrendered per rush we find -

Oklahoma average yards per rush surrendered – 3.24 (411 rushes)
Florida average yards per rush surrendered – 3.33 (425 rushes)

Oklahoma is actually more effective in defending the rush than Florida, though the statistic is very close. I very much doubt most people are aware of this, and I certainly was not.

NCAA Passing Defense Ranks

19. Florida – 174.0 ypg
99. Oklahoma – 253.08 ypg

According to this statistic Oklahoma has one of the worst passing defenses in the country, nearly as bad as 1 win SMU at 101st. Oklahoma had, as a member of the high flying Big 12, more passes attempted against it than Florida, at 497 to Florida’s 415. So if we look at it by the non-NCAA metric of yards surrendered per attempt -

Florida average yards surrendered per pass attempted – 5.45
Oklahoma average yards surrendered per pass attempted – 6.62

Were this an official NCAA stat, Oklahoma would rank 51st while Florida would rank 5th. Based on this we can say that Florida’s pass defense is significantly better than the Sooners.

NCAA Passing Efficiency Defense Ranks

2. Florida – 94.17
41. Oklahoma – 117.14

Florida, as one might expect from the above, ranks very well here, behind only defensive standout USC.


Overall Defensive Efficiency – Points per Play

A statistic I devised to demonstrate overall offensive efficiency is Points per Play which measures exactly as advertised – how many points a team scores for each play run. Conversely we can look at Points per Play on defense to see how effective a defense is overall. Since the NCAA doesn’t keep this stat, here are your top 10 (with ppp)-

1 Southern California 0.147
2 Boise St. 0.177
3 Iowa 0.197
4 TCU 0.199
5 Florida 0.202
6 Ohio St. 0.214
7 Penn St. 0.226
8 Alabama 0.233
9 West Virginia 0.245
10 Clemson 0.258

Once again USC’s numbers are really startling, and the Trojans might have had one of the best defenses this year ever.

Florida is 5th in the nation by this metric. Oklahoma, nowhere near the top ten, comes in 50th overall surrendering .346 points per play, or a point every third play.

Conclusion

In line with the conventional wisdom, Florida’s defense ranks statistically much higher than Oklahoma, though perhaps not as much as many think. Statistically, Oklahoma has not faced a defense nearly as tough as Florida’s, While Florida has faced several tougher than the Sooners, the only defense that ranks close to Florida Oklahoma has faced is TCU’s. Oklahoma did score 35 on the Frogs, the most TCU gave up all season, yet it was nearly 20 points worse than the Sooner’s season scoring average.

When you look at my Points per Play (Defense) statistic you find Ohio State 6th. The Buckeyes did a decent job of shutting down high flying Texas, as Ohio State was the best defense the Longhorns faced by far.

What does this mean for tomorrow? If Oklahoma were to score a similar amount on Florida as TCU (35), would Florida still win?

It ought to be one hell of a game.

Tomorrow

At this points my thoughts are turning to the historical import of tomorrow’s game rather than the X’s and O’s (for an excellent take on our game plan see Scully’s “All Things BCS” post below”).

Team of the Decade

Over a year ago, in November of 2007, I wrote a post speculating on which college football team would be “the team of the decade”. Contenders included USC, LSU, Texas, Ohio State … and Oklahoma and Florida.

Since that post LSU added another mythical national title, propelling them to the lead for team of the decade, as the only 2 time winner of the BCS since 2000.

As of late Thursday night LSU will have company.

Either Florida (MNC in 2006) or Oklahoma (MNC in 2000) will pick up its second BCS title. Oklahoma’s would bookend the decade very nicely, while Florida would be of more recent strength.

With but a single year left in the double ought’s the final nod to team of the decade is still to be decided, but its coming down to a few.

The SEC Banner

As I’ve noted before, the SEC has a record unmatched by any conference in BCS history. In fact, it’s perfect.

With Tennessee in 1998, LSU in 2003 and 2007, and Florida in 2006 the SEC is a perfect 4-0 in BCS title games. So besides the obvious rooting interests as a Florida fan, I take seriously the duty to “carry the SEC banner” tomorrow and defend the SEC’s unblemished record in title games.

For the record the conferences in BCS title games –

SEC: 4-0
Big 12: 2-3
ACC: 1-2
Big East: 1-2
Big Ten: 1-2
Pac Ten: 1-1

So not only is the SEC perfect, it is the only conference with even a winning record.

Tuesday, January 06, 2009

I Wonder How I’ll Feel About Oklahoma Fans

Two years ago December the stage was set for the BCS Title Game in Glendale. We knew our opponent was Ohio State, but – at least personally – I didn’t know anything about the Buckeye fan base.

To my imagination they were probably good solid Midwestern folks – the kind I knew when I was growing up. After all I was born in Cincinnati and lived in Chicago before moving south. I imagined they were likely the type of fans that were passionate about their team, but when it was said and done they gave you a “good game” and a handshake. After all, I had rooted vigorously for Ohio State to beat Miami in 2002 figuring them to be the better of the fan groups.

Boy was I wrong.

There were early warning signs, like a Michigan fan I worked with who told me, “You don’t have any idea what these people are like”. I scoffed at him – after all as an SEC fan I had endured the likes of Georgia arrogance, Tennessee nastiness and general LSU drunkenness. They couldn’t be that bad.

Then there was the Ohio State basketball team’s visit to Gainesville in December after the BCS Title game was set. I blogged about it then but I can still barely believe how these folks acted in our town.

Now don’t get me wrong – Florida fans aren’t free from the arrogance taint. But holy crap, I would never go to Columbus and act like I say Buckeye fans doing in Gainesville.

Glendale was all that I feared from Ohio State fans and more. They were simply the most obnoxious group of fans I had ever encountered. Part of their attitude was in no doubt due to their surety that they would win (I remember thinking, pregame, that they probably would too). The stories of bad fan behavior were too many to recite, and were far beyond anything I had ever seen in the SEC (and I have been to every SEC stadium). One Ohio State fan even walked up to my 5 foot tall wife when I was in the restroom pregame and told her to “F herself”. And it wasn’t just the case of a few bad apples – it was universal. The Ohio State fan and her husband who sat next to me put her finger in my face and cursed when Ted Ginn scored on the opening kickoff. The image of foul mouthed, swaggering Buckeye fans is still indelibly imprinted in my mind (and that was only the women). Even though we beat them soundly, the unbelievably poor behavior their fans displayed has pretty much made me dislike Ohio State ever since.

What does this have to do with my post title? Well, my current feelings about Oklahoma fans are completely neutral, if not slightly positive, due to the presence of our former defensive coordinator as their head coach. And while I can’t speak for all Gator fans, I plan on approaching them very civilly.

It’s going to be interesting.

All Things BCS

1. First of all I would like to thank Dominique Franks and Nic Harris. For those of you who didn’t hear, Franks and Harris were nice enough to give us some bulletin board material. Franks said Tebow would be the 4th best QB in the Big 12, which is bad enough, but then Harris said he would be the 7th best. So thank you for challenging someone that takes personal challenges to heart more than any player I can remember.

2. Why did Spikes have to return the favor? Spikes said that the defenses that Oklahoma played against were a joke. Thankfully that is not getting as much play as the Franks comment. Now that being said Spikes did call out the Creamsicles in September and that worked out fine.

3. Apparently Stoopsie will do anything for support.

4. Anyone else noticing what is happening to the Big 12 South teams? You know the ESPN-annointed greatest division in college football. Well their 2, 3, and 4 teams were 16 seconds from going 0-3 in their bowl games (needing a heroic comeback by Texas for their only win). The announcer in the Fiesta Bowl said in the 1st quarter that it is obvious that Texas has never faced a running game like Ohio State’s. Now in all fairness Beanie Wells is a great back and probably a top 5 NFL pick, but Ohio State rammed the ball right down Texas’s throat in the 1st half, and their running game cannot be considered sophisticated. Don’t be surprised to see the Gator offense try to do the same thing. For all the talk about the Spread Offense, the fact of the matter is that we are a running team first and foremost. Whereas Spurrier’s offense was geared towards big chunks in the passing game, Meyer’s offense is geared towards first downs. The fact that we have so many long running plays says more about our athletes than it says about our scheme. If we are able to do this Thursday, it will have the added bonus of keeping Oklahoma’s offense off the field. Make no mistake about it Oklahoma’s offense is scary good, so Meyer’s plan to win has to include something about keeping Sam Bradford and Company off the field.

5. With #3 in mind, don’t be surprised to see:

a. Meyer chose to receive the ball if we win the toss. Set the tone early.

b. Emmanuel Moody play a lot more in the 1st half. Moody is more of a bruising back than Demps or Rainey, and a better overall player than Moore.

c. The offensive staff call a lot short passing routes early in the game. I do expect us to go deep on the 1st drive however.

d. The play-action pass (or Tebow in “the rocking chair”) to be wide open in the middle or end of drives because of necessity of bringing the safety up into the box.

5. At this point I am ecstatic that I am not Charlie Strong. I still haven’t figured out how we are going to stop Oklahoma’s offense. Here is what I think is going to happen. The defense will spend the majority of the time in a 3-3-5 (with Will Hill replacing one of the lineman). This will allow the defense to blitz without losing a man from the secondary – I am thinking Spikes will spend a lot of time rushing Bradford. I am still scared to death of Major Wright in coverage, but maybe (or should I say hopefully) he will prove me wrong. For some reason, I also keep getting the feeling that Oklahoma is going to try to prove that they aren’t a finesse team. Against Texas Tech, the Sooners decided that they were going to run the ball right at the Red Raiders and it worked. I can see them trying that against us too. I think they have a size advantage when it comes to Duke Robinson (OG) vs. any of our NTs.

6. Tendencies

a. Oklahoma runs the ball 65% of the time on first down.
b. Oklahoma throws the ball 68% of the time when it’s 3rd and short.
c. Chris Brown is the short yardage back (15 of 16 short yardage situation carries on 3rd down).
d. Gresham (TE) is the favorite red zone target.

7. What we need to do

a. Stay away from zone coverage. Bradford struggled against TCU and Kansas State, both of which played press man coverage. Against TCU Bradford completed 55% of his passes and just 40% against Kansas State. (Maybe that was what Spikes was talking about).

b. Watching the Fiesta Bowl one thing became apparent, when Texas ran the hurry up, Ohio State couldn’t keep up. Oklahoma will run the hurry up from the first play. We have to be ready for the snap. Here is how we are preparing for it.

c. Keep the down and distance in our favor. If we can win 1st down, it will go a long way towards stopping Oklahoma’s offense, but to me the key is 3rd down. If we win 3rd downs we will win the game. It gets the Oklahoma offense off the field and allows one of our best weapons to go against one of their weaker units. You can debate the offenses and defenses of these two teams until you are blue in the face, but there is no debate when comes to Special Teams. We are flat out better when comparing units to units (their return team vs. our coverage team and vise versa). Now that Brandon James is healthy we need a big play from him, not necessarily a score (although that would be nice), but something that flips the field or gives our offense a short field.

Monday, January 05, 2009

Saturday, January 03, 2009

I Agree

Our fellow Gator Orson Swindle at Every Day Should Be Saturday says the Utes deserve at least “a quarter” of the national title.

Orson’s money quote (in regard to Utah’s win), “If you want more from a team, you’re either unreasonable, a total flaming asshole, or both. In lieu of a playoff, we have to resort to fractions, and to be fair: one fraction is just as good as another.”

I agree 100%.

What’s more, I agree with Dr. Saturday’s take on the same subject.

If ever a year begged the (itself twisted) logic of a “split” national championship it is this year. Florida or Oklahoma, Texas (perhaps), USC and most certainly Utah all have equally valid claims to the mythical prize.

In 2006 I wrote a series (posted on the sidebar of this blog) about the ridiculous nature of the so-called “national championship”. At that time, when my Gators were preparing to claim it, I urged that we attempt to break this absurd system. At that time it seemed that it might even be possible, as Florida’s President Machen advanced the prospect of a true college playoff.

Florida claimed the big, fake, fantasy national title in 2006, and the issue of fixing the system went quiet. Since that time I have come to accept that the system, with its highly entrenched interest, isn’t likely to ever change. But that doesn’t mean I have to like it.

So I’m stating it here – if Florida wins Thursday, I will never refer to the Gators as the 2008 National Champions. BCS champions, yes. And SEC Champions, won on the field, you bet your sweet ass. But “National Champions”? Never in the singular. If I refer to it at all, I will include the likes of at least Utah. Or, I’ll ignore it.

Ladies and Gentlemen, Your “National Champion”

All Hail the Utes

When the curtain comes down on the 2008 season, only a single team will remain undefeated – Utah. And that Utah team just dismantled Alabama for the Tide’s second consecutive loss, an Alabama team that was ranked number 1 for much of the season.

Utah outgained Alabama 349 yards to 208 on route to a 31-17 victory that – to use the old cliché – didn’t even look that close. Utah players were in ‘Bama’s backfield all night, and the Tide looked slow compared to the Utes.

This was against an Alabama scoring defense ranked 6th nationally surrendering only 13 points per game, even after the 31-20 loss to Florida. In that effort Alabama gave up a similar 358 yards to the Gators, but gained 323 and led for most of the game. Utah’s performance against Alabama was far more impressive than Florida’s, and Alabama never led the Utes.

Utah can add the win over Alabama to their regular season win over Oregon State – the same Oregon State that beat USC. And while their Mountain West schedule was not the nation’s toughest it wasn’t the worst either, and Utah ranks 33rd nationally in strength of schedule per the NCAA, 9 spots tougher than Southern Cal’s rank at 42.

In other words how can thoughtful people consider USC the “best” team when Utah ran the table and beat the team that beat USC, with a tougher schedule than USC?

Likewise my own Gators find themselves in the “national championship” game largely on the strength of their win over Alabama. Utah looked markedly more impressive against that same Alabama team than the Gators did.

I'll be looking forward to the logic stretching that goes on to convince us that Utah doesn't deserve top accolades. The "system" must be protected, no matter how obviously flawed it has become.

The powers that be have an interest in protecting next Thursday’s game as the “national title game”, but I don’t. Barring something amazing in the Florida – Oklahoma contest, my final BlogPoll vote for number one will be Utah.

Update: Coach of the Year my arse.

Friday, January 02, 2009

I know he's Superman but...

Playing right tackle for Cincinnati in the Orange Bowl a week before the BCS Sham-pionship game is downright ridiculous.

Big 12 South is looking very suspect

All of a sudden.

Here We Go Again

Trojan lapdog Stewart Mandel takes up the annual “USC is the best team” meme in his latest at SI.com.


And SoCal Pete is back with his lobbying for an AP “national title” with –

"With all due respect to [Oklahoma and Florida]... I don't think anybody can beat us."

Anyone else tired of this same-old-shit year after year?

Yes the Trojans are the first team to win three consecutive Rose Bowls. Let’s see how they got there.

First, play in a conference so uncompetitive that you have won the conference title (or shared it) seven years straight. (In contrast, four SEC teams have won the SEC Championship in the same time period – Auburn, Florida, Georgia and LSU).

Second, don’t have the nuisance of a conference championship game. Get your automatic Rose Bowl bid.

Third, play that Rose Bowl in what is essentially a home game in front of a highly partisan crowd.

Fourth, play an overmatched Big Ten team that has to travel cross country to compete. In 2 of the 3 consecutive wins (Michigan and Illinois), that team is not even the Big Ten winner but the runner-up, as the Big Ten winner (Ohio State) is playing (and getting whipped) in the BCS title game by an SEC team.

Finally, with some hapless Big Ten opponent under foot, put your mug in front of the adoring press and tell everyone that your team is the best.

I am a fan of a playoff for a myriad of reasons, but perhaps none stronger than the opportunity for someone to finally shut Pete Carroll up.

P.S. If your team is always the "best", how come you manage to lose on an annual basis to some tepid Pac Ten foe? With all the heralded talent at USC, how can they lose? Could it be coaching?

UF stands to make $47,000

That's right, that's the net profit on an appearance in the BCS championship game if you believe this piece from the Gainesville Sun.

When you play for the national championship there is a misconception that the schools participating reap a $17 million pay day.

Florida is hoping to make $47,400.

According to the budget approved by the University Athletic Association's board of directors last week, UF will spend $2.42 million on the game and receive $2.467 million in revenue from the SEC. The rest, as usual, goes into a pot that includes all bowl revenue and is split by the other 11 conference schools and the league office.

There's a reason that he's the "Guru"

Our buddy Sam Chi, the BCS Guru, tells us how the BCS can make immediate improvements to the current system. He rightly points out that the road we're on is one of evolution rather than revolution.

Please take the time to read his piece and spread the word.